Interstate High Speed Rail Funding

Productivity gains by having the world’s best transportation infrastructure from 1945-1980 helped America become the world’s only superpower. Since 1981 however, America has underinvested in high-speed, high-capacity transportation infrastructure to manage our population, urbanization & economic growth, while reducing air pollutants. We have the economic might to do it. The challenge is marshaling political courage and votes to defy opposition from powerful industries. — Thomas Dorsey, Soul Of America

Modern Transportation and Electric Infrastructure construction is very expensive. The good news is, we can afford it pver the next 25 years. Politifact says that America spent over $6 trillion on two Middle East wars from 2001-21. If America can spend $6 trillion on Middle East Wars now ended, our $19 trillion per year GDP can afford $3 trillion over 25 years to modernize Transportation and Electric infrastructure that, in a virtuous circle, enlarges our economy.

2017 World Economy Chart

$80 Trillion World Economy Chart, 2017 Data; credit Visual Capitalist

2021 is a milestone year for electric Transportation. Tesla’s stock value surpassed ExxonMobil. Hertz ordered 100,000 Teslas. Amazon committed to an all-electric fleet by 2030. America’s automakers committed to boost Electric Vehicles (EV) to 40-50% of sales by 2030.

China continues investing 5.6% of GDP on infrastructure. Even Japan and most European nations invest between 0.7% to 1.0% of GDP on infrastructure. In contrast, America continued investing only 0.5% of GDP on infrastructure.

Despite a few dozen bottlenecks, our railway for movement of freight is great. Passenger rail however, requires new infrastructure for high-speed, high-frequency and high-patron capacity. Due to acute underinvestment, our railway for passengers lacks those features. On the chart below, Yonah Freemark of the Urban Institute illustrates the trend line of Federal Railroad investment since 1977.

If Yonah Freemark’s chart went back to 1965 it would illustrate that, excluding 1980-81 and 2009-10, America has underinvested in HSR-Regional Rail and Rapid Transit. Even if we give our leaders a pass for underinvestment during the Vietnam War (1964-74), the 1973 Oil Embargo should have motivated them to ramp up investment in HSR-Regional Rail and Rapid Transit. Most leaders in other advanced nations did.

Since 1975, our leaders should have invested at least 1.0% of GDP in infrastructure. From that pot of money, an inflation-adjusted $10 billion/year should have been channeled to HSR-Regional Rail and $12 billion/year to Rapid Transit. We would have a great Interstate HSR System with ample Regional Rail extensions. Our Top 50 Metro Areas would have robust Rapid Transit systems anchored at train stations.

Since American leaders did not make that scale of investment that early, we must accelerate investment now to capture the benefits described in Part 2 and mitigate the challenges described in Part 3.

Political Courage Reignites Transportation Infrastructure

In 2021, polls still say most Americans want more HSR-Regional Rail and Rapid Transit which requires a Smarter Electric Grid. They also want to fix Highway bridges. A bi-partisan coalition of three former U.S. Secretaries of Transportation agree with them.

Those and other factors led to the $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Bill authored by 20 of 22 Democrat and Republican Senators from rural-dominant states. As usual, Highways get the lion’s share of infrastructure funding — $110 billion. The bill only sends $66 billion to HSR-Regional Rail-Freight Rail projects and a paltry $39 billion to Transit. It also allocated $73 billion to Electric Energy projects.

From a rural perspective, the Infrastructure Bill is large enough to address their transportation needs, which are predominantly Highways and roadway bridges. For urban America, the bill fails to make up for HSR-Regional Rail and Rapid Transit underinvestment since 1965.

Since the Vietnam War ended in 1974, we’ve lost too much productivity from traffic congestion. And we emit far too much Smog and GHG. That is why HSR-Regional Rail and Rapid Transit projects need a slice of the $559 billion for Clean Energy & Climate Investments proposed in President Biden’s $1.75 Trillion Build Back Better Bill.

We know where to guide the additional funds. The National Committee for America 2050 composed of civic leaders, business leaders, state planners and urban planners developed a framework for America’s future growth. Since 1992, the Federal Railroad Administration has identified many other HSR corridors within those mega-regions. For purposes of HSR investment, consider Northern & Southern California as one mega-region on their America 2050 Map.

The Infrastructure Bill sends $30 billion to Northeast Corridor HSR to couple with $16 billion of state, local and private matching funds in its Phase 1 upgrade. That’s great, but many other corridors in the 10 mega-regions need HSR infrastructure too.

America 2050 Mege-Regions Map

America 2050 Mega-Regions Map; source Regional Plan Association

To address corridors that will deliver the highest ridership to reduce traffic congestion, smog & GHG emissions, Biden’s Build Back Better Bill should invest $130 billion in HSR-Regional Rail-Freight Rail and $120 billion in Rapid Transit. Fortunately for taxpayers, private investors have cherry-picked Houston-Dallas, Las Vegas-Southern California and Tampa-Orlando-Fort Lauderdale-Miami corridors for HSR-Regional Rail investment.

Unfortunately, the current Congress is unlikely to allocate $64 billion of HSR-Regional Rail investment atop $66 billion allocated in the Bi-Partisan Infrastructure Bill. Nor is Rapid Transit likely to receive $81 billion investment atop $39 billion allocated in the Bi-Partisan Infrastructure Bill.

When the Build Back Better Bill passes, I hope it allocates at least $44 billion for HSR atop $66 billion for HSR-Regional Rail-Freight Rail for a total of $110 billion/8 years to HSR-Regional Rail-Freight Rail. That’s large enough to attract $50 billion/8 years from state, local, freight rail & other private companies for $160 billion/8 years total funding.

The $50 billion matching contribution is realistic because a handful of states, counties, cities, freight rail and Transportation-Oriented Development (TOD) companies are committing $16 billion to Northeast Corridor HSR and the state of California is committing $20-23 billion to the California HSR project. The Build Back Better Bill will attract contributions from more states, counties, cities, freight rail and TOD companies to the pool funds.

Aside from Northeast Corridor HSR and California HSR, Interstate HSR Phase 1 funding should target existing Amtrak Regional routes designated for HSR upgrades since 1992. Having engaged the public for years about those upgrades, Amtrak and State DOTs know where the “landmines are buried.” That will minimize lawsuit and property acquisition delays.

Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Virginia already support Amtrak Regional upgrades. If $26 billion in Federal HSR funding heads their way, the latter seven states will find $14 billion in matching funds for Amtrak-HSR upgrades.

Though $160 billion total investment would be difference-making, it is not large enough to fund mid-priority HSR projects listed on Part 6 of this series. Nor should Biden’s USDOT let a hundred small projects consume funding needed for 6 difference-making HSR projects and the difference-making Amtrak Regional Rail upgrades listed in another section below. We need to accelerate these high-priority HSR Phase 1 projects:

$ 45 Billion Northeast Corridor HSR
$ 43 Billion California HSR
$ 15 Billion Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte-Atlanta HSR
$ 10 Billion Philadelphia-Harrisburg-Pittsburgh HSR
$ 8 Billion Milwaukee-Chicago-Springfield-St Louis HSR
$ 7 Billion Chicago-Gary-Kalamazoo-Ann Arbor-Detroit HSR
==============================================================
$128 Billion Federal, State, Local & Private Funds

Another $2 billion should be allocated to underwrite Preliminary Plans and Environmental Reviews for interstate HSR Phase 2 projects. We also need USDOT to shorten national environmental review process by 12 months. These projects should be ready for HSR Phase 2, when larger federal, state, local & private funding become available in 2029:

• NYC-Albany-Schenectady-Syracuse-Rochester-Buffalo
• New Haven-Hartford-Springfield-Montpelier
• Richmond-Norfolk
• Pittsburgh-Cleveland-Toledo-Detroit
• Atlanta-Birmingham-Meridian-Jackson
• Chicago-Indianapolis-Cincinnati
• Cleveland-Columbus-Dayton-Cincinnati
• Indianapolis-Louisville-Nashville-Atlanta-Jacksonville
• St. Louis-Kansas City-Wichita-Oklahoma City-Dallas
• Cheyenne-Denver-Colorado Springs-Santa Fe-Albuquerque
• Tucson-Phoenix-Las Vegas
• Eugene-Portland-Seattle-Vancouver
• New Orleans-Baton Rouge-Houston
• Chicago-Quad Cities-Des Moines-Omaha
• Seattle-Spokane-Boise-Salt Lake City
• Auburn-Sacramento-Martinez-Oakland-San Jose

Regional Rail & Long-Distance Rail Funding

Freight trains share thousands of their track mileage with Amtrak Regional and Amtrak Long-Distance trains. That leads us to the two biggest causes of Amtrak schedule delay: (1) old train equipment and (2) bottlenecks having only 1 Main track. Since Amtrak is already replacing diesel locomotives with low-emission diesel-electric locomotives and refreshing old cabins, old train equipment will be a non-issue by 2026.

Many states already have Preliminary Plans or Environmental Clearance for Amtrak projects to add a 2nd Main track and better gated railroad crossings. At best, those projects will limit Amtrak Regional trains to 90 mph top speed, 50 mph average speed (with stops) and 8-10 daily roundtrips.

To attract high ridership, Amtrak Regional routes should be upgraded to world-class Regional Rail status where trains run 110 mph top speed, 72 mph average speed and 20-28 daily roundtrips. Unlike High Speed Rail, Regional Rail does not require large property acquisition, long tunnels, long viaducts or large earthmoving. Regional Rail does however, require 2 Main tracks and intermittent Siding track for freight trains to pull aside. Regional Rail also requires railroad over/underpasses, urban fencing and electrification to accelerate & brake faster for higher average speeds.

Regional Rail upgrades in America currently average $3 billion per 100 miles — lower in rural area, higher in urban area. Fortunately, 11 of 25 Amtrak Regional lines can be subsumed in HSR projects named above. The remaining $30 billion/8 years should upgrade 14 Amtrak routes to Regional Rail status that simultaneously reduces Amtrak Long-Distance train and freight train bottlenecks. To spread the benefits across more states sooner, Amtrak Regional Rail projects should upgrade in two phases:

Phase 1: Build 2 Main Tracks, add Siding Track, acquire small property & start building over/underpasses
Phase 2: Finish over/underpasses, convert to electric infrastructure & trains, upgrade signaling & fencing

Since I advocate for investing a lot of taxpayer money in HSR, I feel compelled to remind readers that we must hold political leaders and contractors accountable to guard against excessive cost. I paraphrase these cost-control tips from a highly-regarded Transportation expert, Alon Levy at PedestrianObservations.com:

1. Project budgets should be set at a standard level with standard (10-15%) contingency funds.
2. Advocate for consolidated federal & state Environmental Reviews to save 12-18 months of project time.
3. Follow French and German best practices HSR and Regional Rail design & construction.
4. Design variations should only be accommodated for cost minimization.
5. If NIMBYs try to gold-plate projects, the state should fight back to prevent cost-creep.

Renaissance of American Train Travel

With more Phase 1 HSR and Regional Rail corridors operating by November 2028, voters will demand that our future Congress and President make a larger investment in Phase 2 projects that passed Environmental Reviews. Under those conditions, $250 billion/8 years in Federal HSR-Regional Rail Phase 2 funding is possible.

Whatever the federal funding amount, it should attract 40% more funding from state, local, freight rail and Transportation Oriented Development sources. That will be enough for HSR and Regional Rail to be operating or under construction in all mega-regions by 2035. The USDOT strategic plan should target substantial Interstate HSR System build-out by 2045, though another great recession or natural disaster could stretch it to 2050.

A Google search for “U.S. High Speed Rail Maps” produces no shortage of 2050 Interstate HSR Vision Maps. Some maps include Regional Rail and Long-Distance Rail routes too. Based on my HSR training at Mineta Transportation Institute and much of what I learned from TheTransportPolitic, PedestrianObservations, and America 2050 Research Framework, the U.S. High Speed Rail Association Map and High Speed Rail Alliance Map have the most credible vision. Most of their route alignments are grounded in sound principles for high ridership and operating profit.

I favor the bold scale and transformational impact that 2050 U.S. High Speed Rail Association Map represents.

US High Speed Rail Association Map

2050 U.S. High Speed Rail Association Map; source U.S. High Speed Rail Association

The U.S. High Speed Rail Association (USHSRA) advocates for 220 mph routes. They need high corridor population-density to cost-justify the most property acquisition, longest tunnels, longest viaducts and most earthmoving.

Even by 2050, a number of USHSRA’s 220 mph routes will not have enough “Forecast Population Density” to justify infrastructure costs beyond 160, 180 or 200 mph. Consequently, I’d like the USHSRA map changed to reflect 160-180-200-220 mph HSR routes, while continuing inclusion of 110 mph Regional Rail routes. With that modification, I believe USHSRA can form the “Definitive 2050 Interstate HSR System Map.”

By completing America’s Intermodal Transportation Network with that scale of transformational HSR-Regional Rail, expanded Rapid Transit, modernized Highways, long-distance Aviation and bottleneck-free Freight Rail, our mobility options can embrace the 21st century, rather than be punished by it.

Part 1: America Could Have Built a Great HSR System, But Underinvested

Part 2: Global Economic Competitors enjoying Massive HSR Benefits

Part 3: Population Growth, Air Pollution at Odds with Highway Expansion

Part 4: Alternatives that Fall Short of Regional Mobility Needs

Part 5: Rapid Transit Expansion, Another Key to Better Mobility

Part 6: Scale of Interstate HSR System Needed by 2045

SUPPLEMENTAL HSR ARTICLES

Interstate High Speed Rail Taxonomy

American Passenger Rail History

Interstate High Speed Rail Lies & Truths

Interstate High Speed Rail Energy Sources/

Amtrak Acela High Speed Rail Progress

California High Speed Rail Progress

Las Vegas-SoCal High Speed Rail Progress

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