Vision Map of an Interstate High-Speed Rail System operating by 2050; source U.S. High Speed Rail Association
Interstate High-Speed Rail Funding
America must invest a higher percentage of public and private funds in High-Speed Rail, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit projects now for a Near-Complete Passenger Transportation System that increases economic productivity, limits project inflation, and slows Global Warming by 2050 – Thomas Dorsey, High-Speed Rail Advocate & Travel Publisher
In the 21st century, every advanced nation needs a balance of great Aviation, Intercity Passenger Rail, Highway, Rapid Transit, and Bikeway infrastructure. France is proving that it takes about 60 years (1974-2035) to build that balance within a Complete Passenger Transportation System in an advanced democratic nation. Due to traffic congestion, accidents, smog, Global Warming, and population growth from 330 million in 2020 to 390 million by 2050, America must do likewise.
Unfortunately, American politicians have spent chump change on HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit & Bikeway infrastructure since 1974. We finally achieved major progress in November 2021, when the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) was passed by Congress and President Biden.
Over 2022-24, the BIL enabled our US Department of Transportation (USDOT) to contribute difference-making funds to two High-Speed Rail (HSR) projects, replace old Amtrak trains, double the frequencies of Amtrak Long-Distance trains, eliminate some freight rail bottlenecks, fund many Rapid Transit projects, and accelerate Highway bridge repair. And yet, many other showcase HSR, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit projects were underfunded again. I don’t see a practical way to complete the Interstate HSR & Regional Rail System proposed by the U.S. High-Speed Rail Association by 2050. But we can make meaningful strides every 4-5 years towards it.
That assessment is tempered by mixed political signals for HSR, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit funding in the years ahead. Over 2017-20, Trump canceled a $929 million federal grant to the California HSR project but approved a $647 million federal grant to a commuter rail project that will eventually let California HSR trains enter downtown San Francisco. In August 2024, Trump re-stated his interest in a world-class HSR system like Japan. Yet, Project 2025 proposes to cut federal funding to HSR, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit projects.
There are still reasons for hope. Many Republicans support HSR projects that include substantial private funding. They know that HSR & Regional Rail projects in Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Arizona, and Nevada would employ people who voted for them and want HSR & Regional Rail.
Amtrak ridership is higher than before the pandemic. Excluding the pandemic and despite lousy infrastructure, Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR has operated at a profit since 2006. That ridership and profit will grow as new high-speed trains arrive in 2025 which will improve Time Savings, Capacity & Passenger Experience. Some BIL-funded infrastructure comes online over 2027-2028 to improve Time Savings, Frequency, Schedule Reliability & Station Experiences.
Bightline West HSR between Las Vegas and a distant LA suburb would like publicly funded HSR tunnels to connect with the Los Angeles Union Station located downtown.
Republicans know that more aging Highway bridges will require federal funding after the BIL expires in September 2026. Democrats and Republicans in purple districts want more voter-demanded Metro Rail, Bus Rapid Transit & Commuter Rail projects. Business needs a Smart Electric Grid to keep up with electricity demand. News media and social media posts are educating more Americans that we need more and better HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit, Highway bridge repair, and Electric Grid upgrades.
Those are ingredients for a more specific bipartisan infrastructure bill. Or federal politicians can boost their allocations in the annual USDOT and US Department of Energy budgets. Either way, federal funding attracts 30-40% of required project funding from states.
Transportation scholar Alon Levy’s Interstate HSR Plan only lacks a St. Louis-Kansas City line.
If those political interests align to significantly increase funding after September 2026, a difference-making system similar to the American HSR Map by Alon Levy can be completed by 2050. Though not on Levy’s map, we can include many upgraded Regional Rail routes.
By 2060, it’s possible to complete over 90% of the U.S. High Speed Rail Association Map.
America Can Afford Big Infrastructure Projects
From 1994-2021, the annual Infrastructure Week was a running joke in Washington. America’s infrastructure investment sank to only 0.5% of GDP. Our largest cities became choked with highway congestion. Regional flights congested airports in our large metro areas.
While we slept at the wheel, China was investing 5.6% of its GDP in difference-making infrastructure for the 21st century. Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Germany were investing 0.7% to 1.3% of GDP in infrastructure. Japan and Western Europe required lower percentages than China because they began investments decades earlier.
The U.S. economy reached $27 trillion in GDP in 2023. We can afford to invest 1.2% of GDP on infrastructure to catch up with Western Europe, Japan, and China. As Part 4 of this series explains, widening highways beyond 8 lanes is an unsound investment, but we must fix our Highway bridges along with ongoing repair of highway surfaces. Though airport terminals in our large metro areas will be in good shape by 2030-32, extremely few can add runways.
Therefore, we must accelerate other difference-making transportation projects.
The World Economy divided by countries in 2023; source Visual Capitalist
We don’t have to shake down couches to find infrastructure money. Politifact says that America spent over $6 Trillion on two Middle East wars from 2001-21. After those two wars, we freed up public funds but did not cut wasteful Defense spending.
As Scientific American explained in 2020, “The Pentagon has a track record of profligate spending. If it were a private corporation, gross mismanagement would have forced the Pentagon into bankruptcy years ago. Dysfunctional internal controls, abetted by years of lax congressional oversight have enabled it to waste about $100 billion annually on a parade of overpriced, botched, and bungled projects.”
USA Facts reports that the federal government collected $4.47 trillion in revenue in fiscal yearย 2023. It spent 3.4% of GDP ($916 billion) on Defense compared to 0.6% of GDP ($17 billion) on Infrastructure. With better oversight by Congress, America can transfer $46 billion/year from wasteful Defense Spending to Transportation infrastructure while maintaining a military advantage over China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea combined.
When will America get serious about funding High-Speed Rail like other nations?; credit gilaxia
Funding HSR & Regional Rail Projects Still Possible
When President Biden signed the $1.2 trillion/5-year proposal into Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) in November 2021, it only prevented our Intercity Passenger Rail, Highway, Rapid Transit, Energy, and Waterworks infrastructure from falling further behind. More specific to this topic, it only allocated $66 billion to Federal Railroads and $39 billion to Federal Transit beginning in FY2022 (October 2022)
The Federal Railroads Administration (FRA) allocated a difference-making $30 billion to the Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR project and $3 billion to combine with $8+ billion of private money for the Las Vegas-Southern California HSR project. The BIL also invests $24 billion in Amtrak train replacements, improving stations, planning more HSR & Regional Rail projects, and fixing some freight rail bottlenecks.
Of the paltry $12 billion allocated to HSR & Regional Rail projects, California HSR received only $6.7 billion, despite having 95% of its 520-mile project under construction or ready-to-build. Amtrak Chicago-St. Louis, Amtrak Chicago-Gary-Kalamazoo-Detoit, and Amtrak Washington-Richmond-Raleigh routes received a combined $3.5 billion for partial upgrades to Regional Rail status. America will have less than 800 miles of 140-220 mph HSR operating by 2030. That’s about 1/3rd of Spain’s HSR mileage — a country producing only 6% of America’s GDP.
USDOT budget from Congress and Trump is presently unknown. Given the high degree of Congressional Republican opposition, I doubt that a Democrat-led $205 Billion/5 Year HSR Proposal will pass. Given Trump’s hatred for Governor Newsom, I doubt we would let Newsom claim credit for new infrastructure largely funded by his USDOT.
Returning to an earlier theme, there is still reason for hope.
The privately owned Brightline Florida is considered a mildly successful Regional Rail route though bedeviled by roadway-railway crossing accidents. Several dozen railroad overpasses, including near Mar-a-Lago, are needed for safety & higher speed on the existing route. Brightline Florida could also use a public funding contribution for a 125 mph Orlando-Tampa extension completely separated from automobiles.
A good economy and legacies matter to Presidents. I’m sure Trump wants to sustain the relatively low unemployment rate established under President Biden. One reliable way to continue that job growth is through more infrastructure projects. Continuing airport terminal upgrades and repairing waterworks started under Biden will not burnish his legacy. ย He has to look elsewhere to claim infrastructure achievements as solely his own.
Trump does like not funding Green Energy projects and he seems indifferent to urban-oriented Rapid Transit projects. That leaves rich opportunities for more ready-to-build highway bridge repair, suburban-oriented Commuter Rail upgrades, Amtrak Regional Rail upgrades, and HSR projects that can break ground on his watches.
California HSR project still has 349 miles ready to build or railroad over/underpasses that need federal funding. The state of California is contributing up to $30 billion to the project by 2030 and soliciting private investment partners. Big private investment is still on the table for a Dallas-Houston HSR project. Private investors are studying HSR investment in the Atlanta-Greenville-Charlotte-Raleigh-Richmond-Washington corridor.
The is enough momentum for Trump’s USDOT to forge Public-Private-Partnerships on several 185-220 mph HSR projects. He also has persuasive power over Congressional Republicans to follow his agenda. If Trump values an infrastructure legacy, he can focus on difference-making HSR, Regional Rail, Highway Bridge Repair, and Electric Grid projects that do not explode the budget deficit.
Difference-making HSR & Regional Rail Projects
Trump can establish an infrastructure legacy in several ways. He can continue the BIL-level Federal Highway budget but primarily focus it on bridge & surface repair. He can continue BIL-level Federal Energy upgrades toward a Smart Electric Grid. He would share credit with Biden for those infrastructure achievements. As quiet as it’s kept, Trump has the opportunity to surpass Biden’s legacy in HSR, Regional Rail, and Commuter Rail.
The BIL allocates $26.4 billion to Federal Railroads from October 2024 to September 2026. Trump can continue the annual $4.7 billion Federal Railroads budget for 2 years. The $26.4 billion + $9.4 billion would sum to about $36 billion/2 years. He can also lead Republicans to boost the FY 2027 and FY 2028 Federal Railroad budgets each to $26 billion. His Federal Transit Administration (FTA) can prioritize $8 billion/4 years towards over/underpass projects for specific upgrades shared by Regional Rail & Commuter Rail. Trump can focus that $98 billion ($36 billion/2 years + $54 billion/4 years + $8 billion/ 4 years) on 7 difference-making projects that establish a larger HSR & Regional Rail legacy for him than for Biden:
1. His USDOT (FRA & FTA) could allocate $25 billion/4 years to combine with the state of California allocating an additional $10 billion/4 years, 3 counties contributing $2 billion in the Caltrain-California HSR corridor, and Brightline contributing $10 billion for California HSR projects. That $47 billion is sufficient to build tunnels from the Central Valley to Gilroy, build viaducts & embankments from Gilroy to San Jose, build 35+ railroad over/underpasses between San Jose and San Francisco, and complete the rail tunnel into downtown San Francisco. For its private investment, Brightline could receive a 20-year exclusive license to purchase & operate trains from San Francisco to Bakersfield.
2. His FRA could allocate $4 billion/4 years to combine with $5 billion Brightline investment to expand Brightline HSR 53 miles from Victorville to Palmdale to connect with LA’s commuter rail system.
3. His FRA could allocate $30 billion/4 years coupled with $15 billion/4 years from Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina & Georgia, and $10 billion from Brightline to build 185-200 mph HSR in Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta corridor. For its private investment, Brightline could receive a 20-year exclusive license to purchase & operate trains.
4. His FRA could allocate $15 billion/4 years and convince privately-owned Texas Central to invest $25 billion/4 years for the 205 mph Dallas-Houston HSR project. The current plan for termini in Dallas CBD and a Houston suburb should extend to Fort Worth CBD and Houston CBD.
5. His FRA could allocate $14 billion/4 years to couple with $7 billion/4 years from Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana & Michigan to upgrade Amtrak’s Milwaukee-Chicago-Gary-Kalamazoo-Ann Arbor-Detroit corridor to 145 mph HSR and 26 daily roundtrips to operate at a profit.
6. His FRA could allocate $3 billion and convince Florida to add $3 billion and Brightline to invest $3 billion more for a 125 mph Regional Rail extension in the Orlando-Disney Springs-Tampa corridor plus 60 railroad overpasses needed for Brightline to reach 110-125 mph in Miami-Space Coast corridor. Brightline would find those investment terms attractive because they eliminate its railroad accident issue and enable operating profits sooner.
7. His FRA could allocate $3 billion/4 years and his FTA could allocate $1 billion/4 years to convince California to add $3 billion/4 years for 25 railroad overpasses and 2 tunnels in the Los Angeles-Anaheim-Oceanside-San Diego corridor. That would enable two commuter rail lines to reach 90-100 mph and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner to reach 100-110 mph and operating profit.
Taming Project Inflation & Public Advocacy
No one likes tax dollars wasted. U.S. High Speed Rail Association, Transportation scholars Alon Levy at PedetrianObservations and Yonah Freemark at TheTransportPolitic, the HSR Alliance have studied successful HSR, Regional Rail, and Rapid Transit projects in Western Europe. To ensure we get our money’s worth, we need federal & state leaders to follow Global Best Practices explained in the video below.
In case you don’t have time to watch the video, here are several highlights:
โข Hire more Passenger Rail expertise in transportation agencies to reduce expensive contractors
โข Converge more federal & state policies to shorten Environmental Reviews by 1 year
โข Standardize more construction elements for economies of scale that lower costs
โข Build many HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit, and train station projects simultaneously
โข Seek private funding for Transportation-Oriented Development (TOD) to pay for many station upgrades
โข Invite private train operators to replace/compete with Amtrak outside the Northeast & Chicago-Midwest regions
As mentioned earlier, we live in a litigious country. Recently, Good NIMBY lawsuits slowed down excessive highway widening and airport runway projects that would destroy more communities and businesses. In contrast, Bad NIMBY lawsuits jacked-up costs for HSR, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit projects approved by voters.
We need the general public to understand that population growth eliminates the “No Build Alternative” in the corridors listed in Part 6 of this series. Those HSR & Regional Rail projects can use substantial rights-of-way in existing railway and highway property. Even where they require new rights-of-way, HSR & Regional Rail consume one-third as much land as 6-lane highways with medians and cost half as much to build.
We need more news & social media calling out the charade of Highway widening beyond 8 or 10 lanes.
HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit, and a Smart Electric Grid collectively limit highway and airport congestion, reduce highway fatalities, increase economic productivity, lower smog, and lower GHG emissions to help slow Global Warming. We need more news & social media advocating for HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit & Smart Electric Grid project funding.
Will Generation Y & Z Save Us?
The United Nations says we are in a death race to prevent a 2ยฐ Celcius temperature rise by 2050 that threatens our way of life. To slow Global Warming, every advanced and emerging nation must accelerate Sustainable Energy investments, plant & save more trees, and recycle & reuse more plastic.
Since the 1950s, Republicans, Democrats, and Independents funded the Interstate Highway System and International Airports by winning project funds for their constituents. America can win again by building HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit & Smart Electric Grid faster to limit project cost inflation.
Without another boost to infrastructure investment, America’s Generation Y & Z voters will experience more negative impacts from highway & airport congestion along with Global Warming in their lifetimes.
They recently impacted the 2024 Election and will become ever larger percentages of the 2026, 2028, and 2030 elections. They can vote for politicians who increase HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit, and Smart Electric Grid project funding. They can vote for politicians who constrain Highway funding to bridge & roadway repair and constrain Aviation funding at the current level.
I close with two questions. Will the 2025 President and Congressional Majority slow America’s HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit & Smart Electric Grid progress again at our peril? Will Generation Y & Z voters pressure enough politicians of both parties to boost HSR, Regional Rail, Rapid Transit & Smart Electric Grid project funding after the BIL expires in September 2026?
Building, building, Building.