California High-Speed Rail

By building the California High-Speed Rail System, enhancing Amtrak California, and expanding Rapid Transit, the Golden State will join the Northeast Corridor in America’s war against excessive regional flights, highway congestion, smog & greenhouse gas emissions. Infrastructure milestones are coming each year from 2025 onwards. — Thomas Dorsey, HSR Advocate

California High-Speed Rail System is a High-Speed Rail (HSR) mega-project on steroids. 496-mile Phase 1 stretches from San Francisco to Anaheim and is highlighted by the 463-mile San Francisco-Los Angeles corridor within it. It requires surface, embankment, viaduct, and tunnel infrastructure. Like other high-capacity infrastructure (Airports, Freeways, Rapid Transit) HSR routes take many years to build.

Once Phase 1 is completed, the California HSR System will anchor mobility advantages that Americans covet like the Golden Gate Bridge when it opened. California HSR will connect to Brightline West HSR, 4 Amtrak California Regional lines, 3 Commuter Rail systems, 4 Metro Rail systems, Intercity Buses, dozens of Bus Rapid Transit lines, Taxis, Uber, Lyft, and Bikeways.

Modeling California HSR After French HSR

The California HSR System is modeled after the electric-powered French HSR System named Train a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Train) or simply “TGV.” In urbanized areas, TGV runs on upgraded tracks shared with Regional Rail trains and Commuter trains, then transfers to dedicated high-speed tracks called Ligne a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Line) or simply “LGV.” Completely separated from automobiles & pedestrians, LGV has less curvature than shared tracks and their tracks are shaved for buttery smooth rides.

TGV and Regional Rail run 99-137 mph on shared tracks (“Classic Lines”) from urban stations to rural areas. TGV transfers over to LGV and then runs up to 186 mph. Nextgen LGV introduced in 2006, has even less curvature, enabling TGV to reach 199 mph.

France will soon introduce a next-generation high-speed train, whose generic name is Avelia Horizon. It is more aerodynamic, 30% lighter, 20% more energy-efficient, designed for 20% lower maintenance costs, and certified for commercial operation up to 224 mph. In France, Avelia Horizon is called “TGV M” and will enter commercial operations in 2025.

To attract more riders who would otherwise drive or fly, TGV fares are typically $16 to $125. France has banned domestic regional flights when alternative TGV & Regional Rail service exists. As the leader of the Paris Climate Agreement, France will cut GHG emissions faster by introducing Nextgen LGV in more corridors and limiting TGV M to 199 mph. That advanced nation is also converting all Regional Rail to electric power and upgrading top speeds to 112-137 mph by 2040. The goal is to enable 98% of French citizens to reach Paris or Lyon in 3 hours or less by electric trains.

To reach Net-Zero Emissions by 2050, France is also banning new oil-powered automobiles and replacing coal-fueled power plants with lower-cost wind & solar energy fueling an efficient Smart Electric Grid by 2035.

Though government-owned, TGV operates for profit. Once electricity costs lower, TGV management has a profit incentive to boost TGV M up to 224 mph on Nextgen LGV for 2 extra daily roundtrips using the same staff hours. Higher speed on Nextgen LGV will also shorten trip times and attract more travelers.

California HSR Environmental, Travel Time & Reliability Advantages

Contributing to the state’s Net-Zero Emissions by 2045 Goal, California HSR will only run on renewable energy. California HSR trains are designed to operate up to 220 mph to replace 75-80% of regional flights and a huge chunk of drives in the 496-mile San Francisco-San Jose-Fresno-Bakersfield-Palmdale-Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR corridor. The following San Francisco-Los Angeles trip times are planned when Phase 1 is completed:

Non-Stop Trains 2 hours 40 minutes
Limited-Stop Trains 2 hours 56 minutes
All-Stop Trains 3 hours 15 minutes

Add 22 minutes for California HSR rides that continue 33 miles south from Los Angeles to Anaheim. Compare Trip Time savings below.

To the uninformed, flying up to 500 mph between Los Angeles and San Francisco should produce shorter trip times than riding trains up to 220 mph. That reasoning is flawed when one considers Total Air Travel Times which combines flight time and airport queue times.

From take-off to landing, SFO Airport to LAX Airport flights average 55 minutes. Airport queues are defined as walking from the curbside, passing through security checks, waiting to board, onboarding to seat, planes queuing on the origin airport runway, planes queuing on the destination airport runway, off-boarding process, and walking from the terminal to curbside. Most airports are many miles from downtowns and other high-activity destinations.

When flying between LAX or SFO airport to reach either downtown destination, Total Air Travel Time is 4 hours 15-30 minutes via Taxi/Uber/Lyft depending on highway congestion. If you rent a car, it’s typically 5+ hours as illustrated on the graph above.

Fast-forward to 2040. Travelers will still encounter 100-120 minutes of airport queues sandwiching a 55-minute flight between SFO & LAX Airports. Afterward, Add 10-15 minutes when checked luggage must be retrieved.  Rapid Transit/Uber/Lyft/Taxi arrive next to SFO Airport terminals. Some people will take SFO Airport People Mover a few minutes to SFO Rental Car Center. Similarly, LAX Airport People Mover will carry travelers a few minutes to the Rapid Transit/Taxi/Uber/Lyft LAX Metro Transit Center or the LAX Rental Car Center.  From either airport, a 20-60 minute Rapid Transit/Uber/Lyft/Taxi ride is required to destinations within San Francisco or Los Angeles.

In contrast, Passenger Rail Travel will be more convenient. Amenity-rich Intermodal Transportation Centers in downtown San Francisco and downtown Los Angeles will feature dozens of Rapid Transit, Uber, Lyft & Taxi options. With tickets on smartphones, travelers can arrive 5-10 minutes before train departure. Most travelers will choose a 2-hour 40-minute or 2-hour 56-minute HSR ride. Compare Total Travel Times by Mode:

• Total Air Travel Time Los Angeles-San Francisco ranges from 3 hours 40 minutes to 5 hours 26 minutes.
• Total HSR Travel Time Los Angeles-San Francisco ranges from 3 hours to 3 hours 50 minutes.

From Intermodal Transportation Centers, 2/3rds of residents will choose a 5-20 minute Walk/Rapid Transit/Uber/Lyft/Taxi ride to either downtown destination.

Another travel factor is schedule reliability. Air travel between the two cities contends with fog delays at SFO Airport combined with weather delays from elsewhere causing airplane landings & takeoffs to back up. The latter problem is so persistent nationwide, that our airlines pad schedules by 10-15 minutes.

HSR Travel is less prone to schedule delays. California is not affected by hurricanes and tornados. California HSR is away from coastal erosion and is designed to avoid flood damage and most wildfires. California already has old rail tunnels that safely withstood large earthquakes. California HSR System is designed to safely withstand major earthquakes, like the Japanese HSR system.

In summary, California HSR is being designed for 95-97% schedule reliability vs. Air Travel’s 78-80% schedule reliability.

California HSR Capacity, Productivity & Relaxation Advantages

Passing through Airport Queues (security, checking & waiting for luggage, boarding and exiting airplanes) is a time-consuming hassle. To their credit, airports counter some Queue Time with WiFi, more power sockets, and more dining options to permit 20-45 minutes of productive or relaxing time before boarding. Depending on weather conditions, flights between the Los Angeles Metro Area and the San Francisco Bay Area only add 10-20 minutes of productive or relaxing time.

Unlike Air Travel, passing through train station security is a breeze. Station platforms are level with train floors and each train cabin has 2 doors for speedy boarding & exiting. Passengers store small luggage above them or large luggage nearby in the same cabin. They store & retrieve luggage even when the train is moving and walk to one of many cabin doors. Once the doors open, exiting trains takes 30 seconds or less. Like others worldwide, more people will choose California HSR to increase productive & relaxing time during intercity travel.

The entire HSR ride is productive in comfortable seats with large seat-back tables, WiFi, power sockets, and better seat lamps than most airplanes. Or, travelers relax by watching videos, playing games, gazing through large windows at landscapes, and napping. Travelers walk to the Cafe Cabin and restrooms at their leisure.

If you doubt that California HSR has sufficient Benefits over Costs, spend 4 minutes reading this backstory, then proceed.

California HSR Connectivity Advantage

California HSR Phase 1 will anchor a passenger rail network that includes Regional Rail (Amtrak Capital Corridor, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, Amtrak San Joaquin Oakland, Amtrak San Joaquin Sacramento) lines, and Commuter Rail lines (Caltrain, Metrolink, ACE) and Metro Rail in Los Angeles Metro Area and San Francisco Bay Area. Functioning as Intermodal Transportation Centers,  California HSR Stations will also host Intercity Buses, Bus Rapid Transit, hotel shuttles, Uber, Lyft & Taxis, plus dining, retail, and service amenities.

The map also illustrates California HSR Phase 2 extending to Sacramento and San Diego. Note the white box called “Wye Study Area.” California HSR Authority renamed that project segment the “Merced Wye” because it both extends the Central Valley to Merced and connects to Gilroy for access to the San Francisco Bay Area.

The San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy passenger rail segment and Burbank Airport-Los Angeles-Anaheim-Irvine-Oceanside-San Diego passenger rail segment are upgrading to Regional Rail status. Caltrain, Metrolink, and Amtrak will share most of that Regional Rail infrastructure with California HSR.

This 3-minute explainer summarizes the Coming Advantages of Regional Rail in California and their symbiotic relationship with California HSR.

Metro Rail networks in the Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego Metro Area are not pictured above. Compared to 2020, those networks will be 33-75% larger in 2040, enabling 35-minute or shorter rides from train stations to attractions, activity centers, and hub airports. Nor are Intercity Bus lines (Greyhound, Amtrak, FlixBus, LuxBus, MegaBus) from Intermodal Transportation Centers to national parks pictured.

California HSR System Phase 1

Big difference-making infrastructure is not cheap. The estimated California HSR Phase 1 construction cost is $96-128 billion. That cost range depends on when more federal, state, county & private funding is secured. That’s still half the $179-253 billion Highway & Airport Construction Alternative for equivalent capacity.

California HSR Phase 1 is a mega-project because it has many segments that cost multiple billion dollars and each has its own project timeline:

California HSR Central Valley
• Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield ($29.8 billion, 171 miles)
• Merced Wye to Carlucci Road ($2.2 billion, 28 miles)

The Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield segment has rights-of-way acquisition 99% complete, substantial mileage built or under construction, and engineering designs underway for the remaining mileage. The Merced Wye-Carlucci Road segment is pending until funding is secured to expand ridership to Gilroy.

California HSR Northern Bookend
• San Francisco-San Jose ($5 billion, 43 miles)
• San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye ($19.6 billion?, 88 miles)

Salesforce Transit Center is a modern Intermodal Transit Center and architectural tour de force located in downtown San Francisco. With a $3.4 billion USDOT grant, state & city funds are combining to build a new train tunnel to the Salesforce Transit Center. The USDOT, state, and two other counties are contributing funds for overpasses between San Jose and San Francisco that will initially benefit Caltrain. When enough San Jose-San Francisco overpasses are complete by 2034-35, California HSR will use the same train tunnel into the Salesforce Transit Center. Most of those construction costs are not counted in California HSR Phase 1.

I place “?” beside the $19.6 billion San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye segment due to the current plan for Quad Gate Systems at over 20 railroad crossings between San Jose and Gilroy. Transportation engineers call over/underpasses to eliminate roadway crossings “Grade Separations.” For reasons described further below, I anticipate that the San Jose-Gilroy HSR segment will increase from $19.6 billion to $22 billion with more grade separations.

California HSR Southern Bookend
• Bakersfield-Palmdale ($17.1 billion, 79 miles)
• Palmdale-Burbank Airport ($16.8 billion, 41 miles)
• Burbank Airport-Los Angeles ($2.9 billion, 13 miles)
• Los Angeles-Anaheim ($7.0 billion?, 31 miles)

Due to a history of underfunding, California HSR Authority staff must constantly look for ways to save costs. A good cost-saving choice was No Intermediate HSR Station between Los Angeles and Anaheim because Amtrak and Metrolink service intermediate stations. A sub-optimal choice was a $6.5 billion Mostly At-Grade Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR Segment Alternative in the May 2024 California HSR Authority Report, Page 4-39.

World-class HSR separates roadways from railways via over/underpasses to increase train speed & safety and to eliminate extra automobile emissions at Gate Waits. California HSR advocates hope that politicians add $500 million for a $7.0 billion Mostly Grade-Separated Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR Segment Alternative. That’s a practical necessity for a corridor forecasting 6 times more train traffic by 2040.

This map from HSR Alliance also illustrates the 170-mile Brightline West Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR project which broke ground in 2024. It should be testing high-speed trains in 2029 and commercially operating them in 2030.

Why Build California HSR in Central Valley Corridor First?

Since the I-5 Freeway corridor could also enable 220 mph HSR through flat Central Valley farmland, some critics believe that the California HSR Authority should have chosen that alignment for a more direct San Francisco-Los Angeles route. Here’s why that idea is under-informed:

1. When the 360-mile Central Valley Corridor (Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto-Merced-Madera-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield-Palmdale) was chosen, it had a 6.4 million population. Today, it has 7 million. By 2040, it is forecast to reach 8 million. An 8 million/360-mile corridor has more population density than many successful 400-mile HSR corridors in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy.

2. Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Sacramento and Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Oakland will transfer riders at California HSR Merced Station and generate California HSR ridership sooner than waiting for new tunnels to Northern Bookend and Southern Bookend.

3. Central Valley HSR Corridor enables 1-hour access to less expensive housing by workers in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area. Those large metro areas have a housing affordability crisis.

4. Central Valley HSR Corridor enables 1-hour access to San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area jobs by Central Valley residents who need a lower unemployment rate.

5. Most airlines stopped flying to the 741,000 population Bakersfield metro area and the 803,000 population Fresno metro area because they make higher profits on longer flights to large metro areas.

6. More traffic congestion from LA to the Central Valley via I-5 and State Route 99 contributes extra smog to 5 of America’s 7 worst cities for air quality.

7. To avoid being an “Urban Elitist Project” it was smart politics to plan Central Valley service that gave its residents reason to vote for the California HSR bond measure. France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and Japan made similar political considerations in building their successful HSR systems.

8. If the I-5 Freeway HSR alignment was chosen, it would require 25-30 miles of deep tunneling under mountains that peak at 4160 feet and cross the San Andreas Fault underground. In contrast, the Burbank Airport-Palmdale-Central Valley Corridor alignment requires less tunnel mileage and crosses the San Andreas Fault above ground for an alignment that psychologically invites higher ridership.

There’s a bonus to the Central Valley HSR Corridor. The upcoming Palmdale Transportation Center invites Brightline West to fund a 53-mile HSR extension in the highway median from Brightline Victorville Station. From Palmdale Transportation Center, Brightline will license time slots on California HSR track for 1-seat train rides between Las Vegas, Victorville, Burbank Airport, and Los Angeles in less than 3 hours.

At Palmdale Transportation Center, Brightline HSR will also attract Fresno, Kings/Tulare, and Bakersfield transfers instead of tortuous highway drives through the Mojave Desert to Las Vegas.

Two Amtrak San Joaquin routes from Oakland and Sacramento run through the upper Central Valley to Merced, Fresno, Tulure/Kings, and Bakersfield at 55-79 mph. Despite that slow top speed, pre-pandemic Amtrak San Joaquins attracted a million annual riders.

Central Valley Corridor will connect Amtrak San Joaquin trains to California HSR Merced Station enabling transfers to 220 mph trains that continue to Bakersfield. Simultaneously, HSR construction will extend several dozen miles west from Madera towards Gilroy at Carlucci Road just before a mountain range. Together, they form what the California HSR Authority calls the “Merced Wye.

In 2030, America will likely get its first taste of 220 mph HSR over 171 miles from California HSR Merced Station to California HSR Bakersfield Station in only 56 minutes.

Northern Bookend Upgrades

To maintain construction momentum, more funding for the Merced Wye-Gilroy-San Jose segment is needed in 2025-26.

In the Northern Bookend, federal, state & county funds will construct overpasses that enhance Caltrain commuter rail. Metro Rail systems in San Jose and San Francisco are expanding. By 2040, San Jose and San Francisco Intermodal Transit Centers will connect California HSR, Caltrain Commuter Rail, Amtrak Regional Rail, Intercity Buses, Metro Heavy Rail, Metro Light Rail, Bus Rapid Transit, Uber, Lyft, Taxis, and Bikeways.

Salesforce Transit Center currently connects Intercity Buses, BRT, shuttles, Uber/Lyft, Taxis, and Bikeways. It has which has a pre-built underground level to host 6 passenger trains simultaneously.

Metro Heavy Rail (locally called “BART”) and Metro Light Rail (locally called “Muni Metro”) lines have an underground station 1 block from Salesforce Transit Center. San Francisco Ferry Building is only a 3-block walk from Salesforce Transit Center.

Caltrain runs frequent commuter trains in the 49 miles between San Jose and San Francisco but stops 1.3 miles short of Salesforce Transit Center. Since a federal grant was recently secured, the rail tunnel into Salesforce Transit Center is slated to start construction in 2025. The rail tunnel will enable shorter trip times into downtown San Francisco in 2031.

From 2009 to 2018, Caltrain experienced 80 collisions at the gated railroad crossings shared by trains, automobiles, cyclists, and pedestrians. The Federal Railroad Administration says 94% of train-vehicle collisions can be attributed to risky driver behavior or poor judgment.

In early 2024, Caltrain powered by diesel locomotives was limited to 79 mph and averaged 5 trains/hour, yet transported 65,000 daily riders. A few freight trains also use the tracks after Caltrain’s 19-hour service day. Currently, 37 gated railroad crossings between San Jose and San Francisco limit Caltrain to 96 daily roundtrips. Caltrain and its city & county partners are installing sophisticated Quad-Gate Systems at railroad crossings that reduce opportunities for risky driver behavior and poor judgment. Quad-Gate Systems cost about $1 million each.

In September 2024, Caltrain converted to electric trains that accelerate & brake faster between San Jose and San Francisco. Electric trains are also quieter. In lengthy sections separated from automobiles, cyclists, and pedestrians Caltrain increases to 90 mph, enabling greater train frequency. As more railroad over/underpasses are built, Caltrain will increase to 100-110 mph and more frequency.

Also by 2031, patrons from the Oakland side of the San Francisco Bay Area will enjoy a BART Metro Rail extension to the upgraded San Jose Diridon Station that also hosts Amtrak Capitol Corridor regional trains and Amtrak Coast Starlight long-distance trains.

California HSR currently plans to run through 6 Quad-Gate Systems and cities have committed to close 4-5 streets in the San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose segment. That will leave 26-27 railroad crossings in the San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose segment that need over/underpass funding. In 2023 dollar value, $2.7 billion is needed to construct them.

It’s good that the California HSR Authority solicits public input. That valuable input led to, among other things, current plans for the San Jose-Gilroy segment to have about 20 inexpensive Quad-Gate System crossings adjacent to the highway rather than an elevated viaduct. But here’s why Quad-Gate System crossings in the San Jose-Gilroy segment would be jeered by the 2030 public and loathed by the 2040 public.

On a typical 2024 workday, up to 400,000 automobiles crossed Caltrain tracks. Some drivers are so frustrated by each 35-second Gate Wait at railroad crossings that they engage in dangerous crossing behavior. Even with Quad-Gate Systems reducing dangerous driver behavior, some elderly and wheelchair pedestrians take longer than average to cross tracks. Some emotionally troubled people park on tracks too. Since freight trains are longer & slower, their Gate Waits are longer as well.

In the San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose segment by 2030, Caltrain plans 114 daily roundtrips between San Francisco and San Jose for 228 train movements that each trigger about 35 Seconds of Gate Wait torturing drivers at railroad crossings. By 2040, Caltrain plans 125 daily roundtrips and California HSR plans 76 daily roundtrips between San Francisco and San Jose for a combined 330 daily train movements. That volume of train movement will pressure politicians to build the remaining over/underpasses and close more small street crossings.

In the San Jose-Gilroy segment by 2030, Caltrain plans 19 daily roundtrips, ACE plans 2 daily roundtrips, Amtrak Coast Starlight plans 2 daily roundtrips, and Union Pacific plans 4 daily freight trains for 50 daily train movements triggering Gate Waits at 20+ railroad crossings. By 2040, however, Caltrain plans 38 daily roundtrips, California HSR plans 76 daily roundtrips, and Union Pacific likely increases to 6 daily freight trains for 230 daily train movements at 20+ railroad crossings between San Jose and Gilroy. That translates to 14 Gate Waits Per Hour X 35 Seconds of driver, cyclist, and pedestrian frustration.

The solution is clear. When Amtrak, commuter rail, and freight rail created hundreds of Gate Waits elevating driver frustration in the 231-mile Washington-NYC Corridor, the public demanded funding for railroad overpasses to eliminate them. As Gate Waits multiply in the 76-mile San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy Corridor, anticipate the public demanding likewise. The sooner they are built, the less expense to taxpayers.

Southern Bookend Upgrades

Fresno and Kings/Tulare Stations are funded to begin construction in 2025. Merced and Bakersfield have ready-to-build Intermodal Transportation Center designs that await construction funding.

On the planning board, Palmdale Multimodal Transportation Center will eventually connect Metrolink commuter trains, high-speed trains, intercity buses, Uber, Lyft, and Taxis. In the mountainous 41-mile Palmdale-Burbank Airport segment, tunnels and viaducts are required for high-speed trains similar to those running under the Swiss Alps. Trains will slow to 100-110 mph as they approach Burbank Airport in the urbanized Burbank Airport-Los Angeles-Anaheim segment.

Burbank Airport plans to build a replacement terminal north of the current terminal by 2027. Once the Palmdale-Burbank Airport HSR segment is funded, Burbank Airport will help coordinate the construction of an underground station to host high-speed trains at walking distance of Burbank Airport Replacement Terminal.

Located on the northern edge of downtown, Los Angeles Union Station is the 6th busiest train station in America. It currently hosts Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, 2 Amtrak Long-Distance lines, 6 Metrolink commuter rail lines, 3 Metro Rail lines, over a dozen Bus Rapid Transit lines, Intercity Buses, Taxis, Uber, Lyft, and soon, a Dedicated Bikeway.

The 2009 California HSR bond, primarily consumed in the Central Valley, also helped fund the Regional Connector in Downtown LA enabling more Metro trains to reach Los Angeles Union Station. Over 2024-28, two new railroad overpasses in Glendale and one in Santa Fe Springs will improve Metrolink lines and Amtrak lines headed to Los Angeles Union Station.

In 1939, Los Angeles Union Station was built as a terminus rather than a run-thru station. Consequently, trains to/from south of Downtown LA must pull in and back out of Los Angeles Union Station, adding 6-10 minutes to schedules.

About 14 miles southeast of Los Angeles Union Station, Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs Station hosts Metrolink commuter trains. As more ridership recovers in 2025, anticipate more Metrolink and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner frequency in the lengthy Santa Barbara-Ventura-Chatsworth-Van Nuys-Burbank-LA Union Station-Anaheim-Irvine-Oceanside-San Diego corridor. Also that year, the California HSR Los Angeles-Anaheim segment will reach Environmental Clearance, which means “ready-to-build.”

LA Metro Transit Authority owns Los Angeles Union Station and plans a capacity upgrade by the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics. The station needs more federal and state grants for run-thru tracks and more amenities to be completed by 2031.

LA Metro would like a 2-mile LA Metro Light Rail extension to an upgraded Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs Station, making it suitable for LAX Airport passengers transferring to Metrolink and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner. From there more people could transfer to Anaheim Regional Intermodal Transit Center (ARTIC) which has attractive space to handle more passengers and retail stores. To reach ARTIC and grow from 41 daily trains up to a planned 241 daily trains by 2040, that segment should get 7 or 8 over/underpasses, and 2 or 3 street closures.

New overpasses, electric infrastructure, and a switch to electric trains can make the Van Nuys-Burbank Airport-Los Angeles Union Station-Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs-Anaheim corridor transport nearly 10 million annual Metrolink & Amtrak passengers while complementing California HSR ridership.

In 2024, USDOT granted $3.3 billion to the California HSR Central Valley project and $3 billion to Brightline West HSR project that will connect Las Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga, which is 41 miles east of Los Angeles Union Station. We can now be confident that 171 miles of California HSR in the Central Valley and 218 miles of Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga will open around 2030.

Progress, But Critical Segments Need More Federal & State Funding

Central Valley Corridor has 119 miles well under construction and 52 more miles at the doorstep of construction. California HSR Phase 1 has 320 more Environmentally Cleared miles. Two new Intermodal Transportation Centers are funded, ten more Intermodal Transportation Centers await funding, and 60+ over/underpasses need funding. Phase 1 can complete more milestones by 2027, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035 & 2039, if enough federal, state, and private funds are secured by 2030.

Brightline West committed over $8 billion private investment in the Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR project which projects 12 million annual ridership. Brightline West anticipates making a substantial ROI based on ticket & concession revenue, plus Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) around its stations. A decade before the rail tunnel to downtown San Francisco opens to host Caltrain and California HSR, San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center was a naming rights and TOD success.

California HSR Phase 1 projects at least 31 million annual ridership that would be comparable to America’s Top 15-20 Airports. Based on that projected ridership, other California HSR-Commuter Rail stations can anticipate receiving a combined $2 billion from naming rights and TOD too. For example, HSR advocates ponder that Google will license San Jose Diridon Station naming rights because the tech giant is building a massive campus next to it.

The Politics of Federal, State & Private Passenger Rail Funding

California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) Highway Division’s annual budget has risen to $16 billion per year in part, to match $1 of state funding for every $2 received from USDOT’s Federal Highway Administration. Affected counties typically contribute 5 to 7 cents for each $1 of Highway funding too.

Though federal (USDOT) and state transportation funding have been insufficient, California HSR, Amtrak California, and commuter rail projects can still win more USDOT and state grants based on several factors:

• Even with sub-par infrastructure at present, Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR runs at a significant profit
• California Passenger Rail projects are eligible to compete for $57 billion in 6 categories of USDOT grants
• California Passenger Rail projects have the most mileage Environmentally Cleared for Design & Construction
• The state of California and affected counties will contribute the most funds matching USDOT grants
• Based on diverting car traffic from corridor highways, San Jose-Bakersfield HSR can likely attract 10 million annual riders
• The state has existing evidence of a private HSR & TOD company investing $ billions

A private HSR-TOD company will not invest until the expensive tunnel Merced Wye-Gilroy segment is publicly funded and enters construction. That tunnel is necessary to form a longer Gilroy-Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield HSR segment and lower investment risk. A private company would then be willing to public-private fund a viaduct in the Gilroy-San Jose HSR segment to operate their high-speed trains and build TOD at a profit.

With that segment opened San Jose, Gilroy, Fresno, Merced, Kings/Tulare, and Bakersfield Intermodal Transportation Centers could then license over $500 million in combined naming rights.

Despite the state’s progressive reputation, the California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) budget remains highway-dominant. While the FY2024-25 Caltrans Highway budget remains at $15.3 billion, the California HSR budget shrinks from $1.8 to $1.14 billion, and State Transit Assistance reduces from $1.4 billion to $1.3 billion. HSR, Amtrak Regional Rail, and Rapid Transit budgets should be rising to meet the 2045 Net-Zero Goal.

Funding by several counties will contribute 10-15% towards grade separation projects in shared corridors that benefit Caltrain, Metrolink, Amtrak, and eventually, California HSR. Nevertheless, too many grade separation projects have stalled due to insufficient state & federal funding. For example, the California Highway + Highway Patrol budget has an 18:1 ratio over the California HSR budget. Moreover, most of the $1.144 billion to California HSR Authority comes from quarterly Greenhouse Gas Reduction Funds (GGRF) auctions, not CalSTA.

California HSR project has access to unspent GGRF from prior years but it’s insufficient to open the Merced-Bakersfield HSR segment. Nor is it large enough to complete construction funding of these California HSR-related projects in 2025-26:

• San Francisco Portal completion to Salesforce Transit Center
• 28 Active/Delayed grade separation projects for Caltrain & California HSR in San Mateo & Santa Clara Counties
• Los Angeles Union Station upgrade & 101 Highway overpass project
• 11 Active/Delayed grade separation projects for Metrolink, Amtrak & California HSR in Los Angeles & Orange Counties

The current transportation budget priorities of the state politicians must change to align with the Net-Zero by 2045 Goal. By halting new highway widening projects, $2 billion/year can be diverted to HSR, Amtrak Regional Rail, and Rapid Transit projects. California politicians need to budget $1 billion/year over 20 years ($20 billion) for California HSR, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, and Amtrak Capitol Corridor. The other $1 billion/year over 20 years should be allocated to Rapid Transit projects. The GGRF supporting California HSR also needs an extension from 2030 to 2050.

Changing Voter Majority Demands More HSR, Regional Rail & Rapid Transit Funding

Voters born after 1981 care deeply about Global Warming and have a lower Car Ownership Percentage than earlier generations. California HSR project approval by age 18-43 voters has grown to 60% approval. That voter category also wants better Regional Rail, Commuter Rail, Metro Rail & Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service.

Age 18-47 citizens will be the majority of voters in the 2026 and 2028 Elections. They can pressure federal, state & county politicians to invest in more HSR, Regional Rail, and Rapid Transit projects such as:

• End Highway Widening when current projects are complete in 2026
• Double California HSR, Amtrak Regional Rail, Commuter Rail, Metro Rail & BRT project funding
• Limit the remaining Caltrans Highway budget to bridge & surface repair
• Significantly reduce smog & GHG emissions

If USDOT committed 50% and the state & counties committed 35% of California HSR Phase 1 cost in 2009-10, more segments could have entered construction early and simultaneously. Private funding would have committed the 15% remainder sooner for Phase 1 completion by 2028 and a total cost of around $65 billion.

Thus far, USDOT funding only sums to $10 billion and most of it was delayed by 13 years. To keep the project moving forward since 2009, California has contributed $24 billion by 2024-end with a commitment to reach $31 billion by 2030-end.

A closer look at the money reveals that Obama’s USDOT only contributed $3.6 billion to the California HSR project. More recently, the California HSR Authority asked for $8 billion for the Central Valley Corridor and Caltrain partners asked for $4 billion for a new train tunnel to the Salesforce Transit Center. Caltrain and Metrolink partners applied for more USDOT grants to lead-fund many overpasses in their corridors shared with Amtrak and freight trains today and California HSR in the future.

Constrained by underfunding of Federal Railroads and Federal Transit from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, Biden’s USDOT contributed a difference-making $3 billion to Brightline West HSR but only $3.35 billion to the Central Valley Corridor and $3.4 billion to the Salesforce Transit Center train tunnel. Compared to Biden USDOT’s $30 billion grants to Northeast Corridor HSR & Regional Rail projects, his USDOT grants to HSR & Regional Rail projects in California were a letdown.

The consequences of USDOT underfunding are severe. Though forecasted at a $96 billion cost in its 2024 Business Plan, California HSR Phase 1 has only secured $29 billion thus far and will likely inflate to $110-120 billion by 2039. In the $110 billion best-case scenario, the rail corridor to be shared by California HSR, Amtrak Regional Rail, Caltrain, Metrolink, and freight trains needs an additional $81 billion.

Will $40 billion more come from USDOT? If so, there are reasonable scenarios where $25 billion more comes from state & county sources. That would surely attract $16 billion from private sources. That $81 billion can be spread over 15 years from 2025-39. Hence, the project needs to average $5.4 billion/year in public & private funding.

Funding HSR & Regional Rail projects should not be hyper-partisan. But that is not our political world today. We don’t know what Trump’s USDOT will do over 2025-28, but we know facts that might be clues.

Begin with the Bad Clues. He doesn’t like California Governor Newsom whose term ends in 2026. He doesn’t like California Congressmen Schiff, Pelosi, and Swalwell. Most Republican Congressmen still object to California HSR. Biden’s record on anti-trust enforcement and his anti-crypto attitude attracted tech billionaire support that dislikes HSR. Elon Musk dislikes it because the state chose state-of-the-art HSR technology rather than his impractical Hyperloop. He cut funds to Amtrak’s Long-Distance routes because he considers them money losers. He has shown no interest in a signature Rapid Transit or Green Energy project.

Now the Good Glues. In 2023, Amtrak Northeast broke ridership and profit records 12 years before the HSR upgrade completes in 2035. Most Silicon Valley Leadership Group members, some of whom contributed to his campaign, want USDOT grants for the HSR project to extend the workforce over a hundred miles away in the Central Valley. Trump is envious of Japan’s world-class, profitable HSR System. His USDOT funded suburban-oriented Commuter Rail projects, including Caltrain. Trump prefers infrastructure public-private partnerships. American oil & gas companies are already drilling at record levels. Allowing them to drill even more will not be a signature achievement.

Several more points inform optimists that California HSR Phase 1 can be completed in 2039.

Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR Upgrade Phase 1 won’t be completed until 2035, but it’s already a signature achievement for Biden. Trump wants a signature infrastructure achievement while his family brand can benefit from it. Lastly, California HSR and Brightline West HSR are likely to have high-speed train testing during the Los Angeles Olympics in August 2028, when he’s 82.

Given Trump won Florida, he should help Brightline extend 125 mph Regional Rail from Orlando to Tampa. Given Wisconsin, Indiana, and Michigan put him in the White House, Trump should help the Amtrak Milwaukee-Chicago-Gary-Kalamazoo-Detroit corridor upgrade to 145 mph HSR to achieve operating profit. Those projects, however, would not be signature infrastructure achievements like world-class HSR lines are for Putin in Russia and Xi in China.

Trump won Texas. The $30 billion Dallas-Houston HSR project has Early Design, Environmental Clearance, 30% of Rights-of-Way acquisitions complete, Amtrak support, and substantial private funding by Texas Central, an HSR-TOD company. Jump-starting the 205 mph Dallas-Houston HSR project with a $10 billion USDOT grant would be a signature achievement. The project, however, needs to settle more lawsuits, acquire 70% more Rights-of-Way, and complete the Engineering Design. Even if construction starts in 2027, it is unlikely to enter testing before 2033.

Trump won North Carolina, South Carolina & Georgia. The Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte corridor is currently a 110 mph upgrade project by the states, USDOT and Amtrak. From Washington to Atlanta, I-85 Freeway is congested more often due to fast population growth. A 185 mph Raleigh-Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta corridor in various stages of planning, environmental review, rights-of-way acquisition, & construction has demographic attractiveness to an HSR-TOD company.

Connecting & upgrading to a 185 mph Washington-Richmond-Raleigh-Charlotte-Greenville-Atlanta HSR project via Public-Private Partnership would be a signature achievement for Trump. Even if funded & upgraded as a 185-mph HSR project, Environmental Clearance, Rights-of-Way acquisition, and Engineering Design would prevent construction from starting before 2030.

$201 billion of BIL USDOT funding remains plus annual Federal Railroads and Federal Transit budgets to continue. Will he contribute to the San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye HSR segment to please his rich Silicon Valley supporters? Will he engage a private HSR-TOD company to contribute funds to the California HSR project in exchange for operating their trains and building TOD? Or will Trump hyper-politicize USDOT funding only to states that he won?

If he wants to upstage the 220 mph Central Valley HSR signature achievement by Obama-Biden-Newsom, he can allocate $20 billion to California HSR, compel the state to grant $10 billion more, and entice a private HSR-TOD company (Brightline?) to contribute $10 billion over 2025-28. He could then boast to Silicon Valley supporters that he expanded their workforce from the Central Valley. He could also boast to Putin and Xi that he is connecting one of the world’s fastest trains to Silicon Valley and San Francisco. Trump’s only realistic chance to do that is in California.

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