California High-Speed Rail

By building the California High-Speed Rail System, enhancing routes shared by Amtrak California & Commuter Rail, and expanding Metro Rail & Bus Rapid Transit systems, the Golden State will join the Northeast Corridor in America’s war against excessive regional flights, highway congestion, smog & greenhouse gas emissions from polluting vehicles. Those electric-powered Passenger Transportation infrastructure milestones are coming each year. — Thomas Dorsey, HSR Advocate

To understand why this expensive mega-project is needed and why the Highway + Airport Expansion Alternative is worse, read this 3-minute explainer.

California High-Speed Rail System is the nation’s largest mega-project. Phase 1 stretches 496 miles from San Francisco to Anaheim and is highlighted by the 463-mile San Francisco-Los Angeles corridor segment that requires expensive tunnels and viaducts.

Difference-making infrastructure is not cheap. Like Hub Airport, Interstate Highway & Rapid Transit mega-projects, High-Speed Rail (HSR) mega-projects typically exceed original cost estimates and take years longer to complete. Examples follow.

Multi-billion-dollar ATL, LAX, and NYC LaGuardia airport modernizations had original cost estimates that ballooned and took years longer to complete. The 2.2-mile San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Replacement dramatically exceeded the original cost estimate and took 6 years longer to complete. NYC’s Second Avenue Metro Rail expansion leapfrogged original cost estimates & timeline. The national list of billion-dollar Highway Widenings that blew past cost estimates & timelines is too long to enumerate. Yet the public is thankful that they were completed.

Once California HSR Phase 1 is completed, it will anchor connections between Brightline West HSR, 4 Amtrak California Regional lines, 3 Commuter Rail systems, 4 Metro Rail systems, Intercity Buses, Bus Rapid Transit lines, Taxis, Uber, Lyft, and Bikeways. A lot of Freight Rail mileage will become safer and quieter. The public will be equally thankful.

Modeling California HSR After French HSR

The California HSR System is modeled after the electric-powered French HSR System named Train a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Train) or simply “TGV.” In urbanized areas, TGV runs on tracks shared with Regional Rail & Suburban Rail (commuter) trains, then transfers to dedicated high-speed tracks called Ligne a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Line) or simply “LGV.” SNCF, a government agency, owns LGV and operates TGV as a for-profit subsidiary.

Completely separated from automobiles and pedestrians, LGVs utilize tunnels, viaducts & embankments for mild curves, have better foundations, and tracks are shaved for smooth, high-speed rides.

Though Standard LGVs have mild curve geometry certified for operation up to 205 mph (330 kph), TGVs commercially operating on them are limited to 186 mph (300 kph) to save on electricity & maintenance costs. In 2006, even straighter curve geometry enabled Nextgen LGV to be certified for operation up to 249 mph (400 kph). Older generation TGVs were modified to commercially operate up to 199 mph (320 kph) on buttery smooth Nextgen LGVs.

Leaving from any Paris train station in 9-12 minutes, TGVs navigate through the shared Suburban Rail track before reaching 99 mph. In 12-15 minutes, it enters Classic Lines in rural areas to reach 137 mph. In 16-19 minutes from departure, TGV transfers to Standard LGV, then runs up to 186 mph, or transfers to Nextgen LGV, then runs up to 199 mph.

In late 2025, France will introduce a 5th-generation TGV to commercial operations. It is more aerodynamic, 30% lighter, 20% more energy-efficient, designed for 20% lower maintenance costs, and certified for commercial operation up to 249 mph (400 kph). Though its generic name is Avelia Horizon, in France it is branded “TGV M.”

As the leader of the Paris Climate Agreement, France is setting many examples to reach Net-Zero Emissions before 2050.

It replaced coal-fueled electric plants with lower-cost wind & solar energy in January 2025. It bans domestic regional flights when an alternative TGV service exists. It is upgrading to electric-powered Suburban Rail, expanding Metro Rail & Tram systems nationwide. It is banning new oil-powered automobiles and completing its energy-saving Smart Electric Grid by 2035. France will initially limit TGV M to 199 mph (320 kph) on Nextgen LGV to save on electricity consumption.

Over 2025-40, SNCF is upgrading to 100% electric-powered Classic Lines, and introducing more Standard & Nextgen LGV to enable 98% of citizens to reach Paris or Lyon within 3 hours. SNCF and European rail counterparts will feature more trip times within 3.5 hours between city pairs like Paris-Frankfurt, Paris-Stuttgart, Paris-Amsterdam, Paris-Milan, Lyon-Barcelona, Lyon-Munich, and Marseille-Madrid.

As wind & solar energy, and the French electric grid continue to lower electricity costs, SNCF has profit and competition incentives to boost TGV M speed on Nextgen LGV. There is also precedent to boost European HSR speeds over time.

In a 19-hour workday, operating TGV M up to 224 mph (360 kph) can produce extra roundtrips at the same labor costs as 199 mph. Or, a 224 mph Top Speed can lengthen the distance traveled within 3.5 hours to attract more ridership and revenue.

California HSR Environmental, Travel Time & Reliability Advantages

Contributing to the state’s Net-Zero Emissions by 2045 Goal, California HSR will only run on renewable energy. California HSR trains are designed to operate up to 220 mph over half of the 496-mile San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy-Fresno-Bakersfield-Palmdale-Burbank Airport-Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR corridor + Merced Spur. These San Francisco-Los Angeles Trip Times are designed for Phase 1 completion:

Non-Stop Trains 2 hours 40 minutes
Limited-Stop Trains 2 hours 56 minutes
All-Stop Trains 3 hours 15 minutes

Depending on the number of over/underpasses built and streets closed to sustain 100-110 mph in the urban corridor, add 26-30 minutes for California HSR rides that continue 33 miles south from Los Angeles Union Station to Anaheim.

To the uninformed, flying up to 500 mph between Los Angeles and San Francisco should produce shorter trip times than riding trains up to 220 mph. The falsehood is laid bare when one combines Flight Time and Airport Queue Times to form “Total Air Travel Time.”

From take-off to touch-down between SFO Airport to LAX Airport flight time averages 55 minutes. Airport queues are defined as walking from the curbside, passing through security checks, waiting to board, onboarding to a seat, planes queuing on the origin airport runway, planes queuing on the destination airport runway, deplaning, and walking from the terminal to the curbside. If checking & retrieving luggage, add 10-15 minutes to the Total Air Travel Time.

SFO and LAX airports are many miles from each other downtown. To reach downtown, the Total Air Travel Time (Airport Queues + 55-minute Flight + Rental Car/Taxi/Uber/Lyft) is typically 4.5+ hours as illustrated below.

Fast-forward to 2040, when Intercity Passenger Rail Travel is far more convenient. Intermodal Transportation Centers in San Francisco and Los Angeles will feature dozens of ground travel connections. With smartphone tickets, travelers can arrive 5-10 minutes before train departure or arrive earlier for retail and dining options. Most travelers will choose a 2-hour 40-minute or 2-hour 56-minute HSR ride.

Some travelers will choose a 5-20 minute walk from Intermodal Transportation Centers to downtown destinations. Other travelers will continue their journeys to their homes or other activity centers. Compare Total Travel Times by Mode:

• Total Air Travel Time Los Angeles-San Francisco ranges from 3 hours 40 minutes to 5 hours 25 minutes.
• Total HSR Travel Time Los Angeles-San Francisco ranges from 3 hours to 4 hours

Another travel factor is schedule reliability. Air travel between the two cities contends with fog delays at SFO Airport and weather-delayed planes from elsewhere that delay landings & take-offs. The latter problem is so persistent nationwide that airlines pad schedules by 10-15 minutes.

The California HSR route is not affected by major snowstorms, tornadoes, or hurricanes. The California HSR is away from coastal erosion and is designed to avoid flood damage. California HSR routes leading to tunnels could be affected by wildfires, but unlike highways in the state, tunnels have less surface area for potential service disruption.

Though California has old rail tunnels that withstood large earthquakes, California HSR is designed to be more resilient to large earthquakes like Japanese HSR. In summary, California HSR Travel is being designed for 95-97% schedule reliability vs. Air Travel’s 78-80% schedule reliability.

California HSR Capacity, Productivity & Relaxation Advantages

Passing through Airport Queues (security, checking & waiting for luggage, boarding, and exiting airplanes) is time-consuming and often a hassle. To their credit, airports counter some Queue Time with WiFi, more power sockets, and more dining & retail options to permit 20-45 minutes of productive or relaxing time before boarding planes. Depending on weather conditions, flights between the Los Angeles Metro Area and the San Francisco Bay Area only reach cruising altitude for 10-20 minutes of productive or relaxing time.

Unlike Air Travel, passing through train station security is a breeze. Platforms are level with most train floors, and each train cabin has 2 doors for speedy boarding & exiting. Since many cabin doors open at once, complete exit from trains generally takes less than 30-35 seconds. Passengers store small luggage above them or large luggage nearby in the same cabin. They can store & retrieve luggage and walk to a cabin door, even when the train is moving.

Like other HSR systems worldwide, more people will choose California HSR for a more productive & relaxing time rather than flying or driving during regional travel.

The entire HSR ride is productive in comfortable seats with large seat-back tables, WiFi, power sockets, and better seat lamps than most airplanes. Or, travelers relax by watching videos, playing games, gazing through large windows at landscapes, and napping. Travelers walk to the Cafe Cabin and restrooms at their leisure.

If you doubt that California HSR has sufficient Benefits over Costs, spend 4 minutes reading this backstory, then proceed.

California HSR Connectivity Advantage

California HSR will anchor a passenger rail network that includes Regional Rail (Amtrak Capital Corridor, Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, Amtrak San Joaquin Oakland, Amtrak San Joaquin Sacramento) lines, and Commuter Rail lines (Caltrain, Metrolink, ACE), Metro Rail (Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay Area), Intercity Buses, BRT, Uber, Lyft & Taxis, plus dining, retail, and service amenities.

California HSR Phase 2 extends to Sacramento and San Diego. Note the white-outlined  box called “Wye Study Area.” California HSR Authority renamed that project segment the “Merced Wye” because it both extends the Central Valley to Merced and connects to Gilroy for access to the San Francisco Bay Area.

The San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy segment and the Burbank Airport-Los Angeles-Anaheim segment are being upgraded to Regional Rail status. Caltrain, Metrolink, and Amtrak will share much of that Regional Rail infrastructure with California HSR.

This 3-minute explainer summarizes the Coming Advantages of Amtrak California Regional Rail & Commuter Rail’s symbiotic relationship with California HSR.

Metro Rail networks in the Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego Metro Area are not pictured above. Compared to 2020, those networks will be 33-75% larger in 2040. Nor are Intercity Bus lines (Greyhound, Amtrak, FlixBus, LuxBus, etc.) from Intermodal Transportation Centers to national parks pictured.

California HSR System Phase 1

The official 2024 estimated California HSR Phase 1 construction cost is $96-128 billion. That cost range depends on when more federal, state, county & private funding is secured. That’s still half the $179-253 billion Highway & Airport Construction Alternative for equivalent capacity.

California HSR is a mega-project because it has many segments that cost billions of dollars. Each segment has its own project timeline:

California HSR Central Valley
• Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield ($29.8 billion, 171 miles)
• Merced Wye to Carlucci Road ($2.2 billion, 28 miles)

The Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield segment has rights-of-way acquisition 99% complete, substantial mileage built or under construction, and engineering designs underway for the remaining mileage. The Merced Wye-Carlucci Road segment is pending until funding is secured to expand ridership to Gilroy.

California HSR Northern Bookend
• San Francisco-San Jose ($5 billion, 43 miles)
• San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye ($19.6 billion?, 88 miles)

Salesforce Transit Center is a modern Intermodal Transit Center and architectural tour de force located in downtown San Francisco. A $3.4 billion USDOT grant will combine with state & local funds to build a new 1.4-mile train tunnel to the Salesforce Transit Center. The USDOT, state, and two other counties are contributing funds for nearly two dozen railroad over/underpasses between San Jose and San Francisco that will initially benefit Caltrain.

California HSR will use the same train tunnel into the Salesforce Transit Center. Most of those construction costs are not counted in California HSR Phase 1.

I place “?” beside the $19.6 billion San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye segment due to the current plan for Quad Gate Systems at over 20 railroad crossings between San Jose and Gilroy. For higher speed, frequency, safety, and schedule reliability, transportation engineers prefer grade separations (over/underpasses) and street closures to eliminate railroad crossings.

For reasons described further below, I anticipate that the San Jose-Gilroy HSR segment will increase from $19.6 billion to $23 billion with a long viaduct or more over/underpasses & street closures.

California HSR Southern Bookend
• Bakersfield-Palmdale ($17.1 billion, 79 miles)
• Palmdale-Burbank Airport ($16.8 billion, 41 miles)
• Burbank Airport-Los Angeles ($2.9 billion, 13 miles)
• Los Angeles-Anaheim ($7.0 billion ?, 31 miles)

California HSR Authority constantly looks for ways to save costs. A good cost-saving choice was to eliminate an intermediate HSR Station between Los Angeles and Anaheim because Metrolink and Amtrak service can service intermediate stations at Fullerton and Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs.

A sub-optimal choice, due to funding uncertainty, was a $6.5 billion mostly level-crossing Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR Segment Alternative in the May 2024 California HSR Authority Report, on pages 4-39.

French HSR has transported over 2 billion passengers without a death in commercial operation by eliminating railroad crossings via over/underpasses & small street closures. Since the corridor forecasts 6 times more train traffic by 2040, HSR advocates beg state politicians, CalSTA, and the California HSR Authority to follow the French HSR example.

Choose the $7.0 billion, mostly grade-separated, Los Angeles-Anaheim HSR Segment Alternative. Do the hard work now to educate the public on why it’s the best and necessary choice.

In 2025, state politicians and CalSTA can fund the $500 million difference by eliminating highway widenings in Los Angeles and Orange counties, but continuing highway surface, bridge & interchange repair.

This map from HSR Alliance also illustrates the 170-mile Brightline West Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR project, which broke ground in 2024. It should be testing high-speed trains in 2029 and commercially operating in 2030.

Why Build California HSR in the Central Valley Corridor?

Since the I-5 Freeway corridor could also enable 220 mph HSR through flat Central Valley farmland, some critics believe that the California HSR Authority should have chosen that alignment for a straighter San Francisco-Los Angeles route. Here’s why that idea is underinformed:

1. When the 360-mile Central Valley Corridor (Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto-Merced-Madera-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield-Palmdale) was chosen, it had a population of 6.4 million. Today, it has 7 million. By 2040, it is forecast to reach 8 million. An 8 million pop./360-mile corridor has more population density than many successful 400-mile HSR corridors in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy.

2. Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Sacramento and Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Oakland will transfer riders at California HSR Merced Station and generate California HSR ridership sooner than waiting for new tunnels to Northern Bookend and Southern Bookend.

3. Central Valley HSR Corridor enables 1-hour access to less expensive housing by workers in the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles Metro Area. Those large metro areas have a housing affordability crisis.

4. Central Valley HSR Corridor enables 1-hour access to San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area jobs by Central Valley residents who need a lower unemployment rate.

5. Most airlines stopped flying to the 741,000 population Bakersfield Metro Area and the 803,000 population Fresno Metro Area because they make higher profits on longer flights.

6. More traffic congestion from LA to the Central Valley via Interstate 5 and State Route 99 contributes extra smog to 5 of America’s 7 worst cities for air quality.

7. To avoid being an “Urban Elitist Project,” it was smart politics to plan Central Valley service that gave its residents reason to vote for the California HSR bond measure. France, Italy, Germany, Spain, and Japan made similar political considerations in their successful HSR systems.

8. If the I-5 Freeway HSR alignment were chosen, it would require 25-30 miles of deep tunneling under mountains that peak at 4160 feet and cross the San Andreas Fault underground. In contrast, the Burbank Airport-Palmdale-Central Valley Corridor alignment requires less tunnel mileage and crosses the San Andreas Fault above ground for an alignment that psychologically invites higher ridership.

There’s a bonus to the Central Valley HSR Corridor. The upcoming Palmdale Transportation Center invites Brightline West to fund a 53-mile HSR extension in the highway median from Brightline Victor Valley Station. From Palmdale Transportation Center, Brightline will license time slots on the California HSR track for 1-seat train rides between Las Vegas, Victor Valley, Burbank Airport, and Los Angeles in less than 3 hours.

At Palmdale Transportation Center, Brightline HSR will also attract many Fresno, Kings/Tulare, and Bakersfield transfers instead of harrowing drives through the Mojave Desert to Las Vegas.

Two Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Oakland and Sacramento run through the upper Central Valley to Merced, Fresno, Tulare/Kings, and Bakersfield at 55-79 mph. Despite those slow top speeds, pre-pandemic Amtrak San Joaquins attracted a million annual riders.

The Central Valley Corridor will connect Amtrak San Joaquin trains to California HSR Merced Station, enabling transfers to 220 mph trains that continue to Bakersfield. Simultaneously, HSR construction will extend several dozen miles west from Madera towards Gilroy at Carlucci Road, just before a mountain range. Together, they form what the California HSR Authority calls the “Merced Wye.”

In 2030, America will likely get its first taste of 220 mph HSR over 171 miles from Merced to Bakersfield in only 56 minutes.

Northern Bookend Upgrades

To maintain construction momentum, more funding for the Merced Wye-Gilroy-San Jose segment is needed in 2025-26.

In the Northern Bookend, federal, state & county funds will construct overpasses that enhance Caltrain commuter rail. Metro Rail systems in San Jose and San Francisco are expanding. By 2040, San Jose and San Francisco Intermodal Transit Centers will connect California HSR, Caltrain Commuter Rail, Amtrak Regional Rail, Intercity Buses, Metro Heavy Rail, Metro Light Rail, Bus Rapid Transit, Uber, Lyft, Taxis, and Bikeways.

Salesforce Transit Center currently connects Intercity Buses, BRT, shuttles, Uber/Lyft, Taxis, and Bikeways. It has a pre-built underground level to host 6 passenger trains simultaneously.

Metro Heavy Rail (locally called “BART”) and Metro Light Rail (locally called “Muni Metro”) lines have an underground station 1 block from Salesforce Transit Center. The San Francisco Ferry Building is only a 3-block walk from Salesforce Transit Center.

Caltrain runs frequent commuter trains in the 49 miles between San Jose and San Francisco, but stops 1.3 miles short of Salesforce Transit Center. Since a federal grant was recently secured, the rail tunnel into San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center is slated to start construction in 2025. Barring a political delay, the rail tunnel will enable shorter trip times into downtown San Francisco in 2031.

From 2009 to 2018, Caltrain experienced 80 collisions/pedestrian incidents at the gated railroad crossings shared by trains, automobiles, cyclists, and pedestrians. The Federal Railroad Administration says 94% of train-vehicle collisions can be attributed to risky driver behavior or poor judgment.

In 2024, Caltrain, powered by diesel locomotives, averaged 5 trains/hour, yet transported 65,000 daily riders. A few freight trains also use the tracks after Caltrain’s 19-hour service day. Currently, 37 gated railroad crossings between San Jose and San Francisco limit Caltrain to 96 daily roundtrips.

Caltrain and its local partners are installing sophisticated Quad-Gate Systems to reduce opportunities for risky driver behavior and poor judgment at level railroad crossings. Quad-Gate Systems cost about $1 million each.

San Jose Diridon Station already hosts Amtrak Capitol Corridor regional trains, Amtrak Coast Starlight long-distance trains, ACE commuter trains, and Metro Light Rail trains. In September 2024, Caltrain between San Jose and San Francisco converted to electric trains that accelerate & brake faster, and are quieter without air pollution, enabling more train frequency.

As more railroad over/underpasses are built, Caltrain will increase from 79 mph to 90-100 mph and higher frequency. By 2031, BART (Metro Heavy Rail) will also extend to the upgraded San Jose Diridon Station.

California HSR currently plans to run through 6 Quad-Gate Systems, and cities have committed to closing 4-5 streets in the San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose segment. That will leave 26-27 railroad crossings that need railroad over/underpasses to eliminate collisions & pedestrian incidents. In 2023 dollar value, roughly $2.7 billion is needed to construct them.

It’s good that the California HSR Authority solicits public input. Among other things, that input led to current plans for the San Jose-Gilroy segment to have 20+ Quad-Gate System crossings for safety. But here’s why Quad-Gate Systems in the San Jose-Gilroy segment would be jeered by the 2030 public and loathed by the 2040 public.

On a typical 2024 workday, up to 400,000 automobiles crossed Caltrain tracks between San Francisco and San Jose. Even with Quad-Gate Systems reducing dangerous driver behavior, more drivers will be frustrated by each 35-second Passenger train Gate Wait. Elderly & wheelchair citizens take longer than average to cross tracks. Some people in emotional crisis park on the tracks.

By 2030, in the San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose segment, Caltrain plans 114 daily roundtrips between San Francisco and San Jose for 228 train movements that each trigger about 35 Seconds of Gate Wait, torturing drivers at railroad crossings.

In the San Jose-Gilroy rail segment, Caltrain plans 19 daily roundtrips, ACE plans 2 daily roundtrips, Amtrak Coast Starlight plans 2 daily roundtrips, and Union Pacific plans 4 daily freight trains for 50 daily train movements, triggering Gate Waits at 20 railroad crossings. Freight train Gate Waits are longer.

By 2040, Caltrain plans 125 daily roundtrips and California HSR plans 76 daily roundtrips between San Francisco and San Jose for a combined 330 daily train movements.

In the San Jose-Gilroy segment, Caltrain plans 38 daily roundtrips, California HSR plans 76 daily roundtrips, and Union Pacific likely increases to 6 daily freight trains for 230 daily train movements at 20 railroad crossings. That translates to 20 Gate Waits Per Hour X 35 Seconds of bothersome driver & pedestrian frustration.

Transportation planners already predict that remaining railroad over/underpasses should be built and several small street crossings closed for such train volume. For example, when early Amtrak, commuter rail, and freight rail encountered dozens of Gate Waits in the 231-mile Washington-NYC Corridor, elevating driver frustration and accidents, the public demanded railroad over/underpass funding and street closures to eliminate them.

As Gate Waits multiply in the 76-mile San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose-Gilroy corridor, the public will demand likewise. Fund them now to eliminate Gate Waits & accidents, and to save billions of taxpayer dollars as compared to funding them by 2035-40.

Southern Bookend Upgrades

Fresno and Kings/Tulare Stations are funded to begin construction in 2025. Merced and Bakersfield have ready-to-build Intermodal Transportation Center designs that await construction funding. The Palmdale Multimodal Transportation Center design is also underway. In the mountainous 38-mile Palmdale-Burbank Airport segment, rail tunnels are required similar to those under the Swiss Alps.

Burbank Airport is building a replacement terminal north of the current terminal by 2027 and leaving room for an underground train station. Once the California HSR Palmdale-Burbank Airport segment is funded, Burbank Airport will help coordinate the construction of the underground station to host trains within walking distance of the Burbank Airport Replacement Terminal.

Located on the northern edge of downtown, Los Angeles Union Station is the 6th busiest train station in America. It currently hosts Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, 2 Amtrak Long-Distance lines, 6 Metrolink commuter rail lines, 3 Metro Rail lines, over a dozen Bus Rapid Transit lines, Intercity Buses, Taxis, Uber, Lyft, and soon, a Dedicated Bikeway.

The 2009 California HSR bond, primarily consumed in the Central Valley, also helped fund the Regional Connector under Downtown LA, enabling more Metro Rail trains to reach Los Angeles Union Station. By 2028-29, two new railroad overpasses in Glendale and one in Santa Fe Springs will improve Metrolink and Amtrak train service to/from Los Angeles Union Station.

In 1939, Los Angeles Union Station was built as a terminus rather than a run-through station. Consequently, trains must pull in and back out, adding 6-9 minutes to schedules.

About 14 miles southeast of Los Angeles Union Station, Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs Station currently hosts Metrolink trains. In 2025, Metrolink and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner plan to increase train frequency in the 300+ mile Santa Barbara-Chatsworth-Van Nuys-Burbank-LA Union Station-Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine-Oceanside-Solano Beach-San Diego corridor. Also, that year, the California HSR Los Angeles-Anaheim segment will reach Environmental Clearance, which means “ready-to-build.”

LA Metro Transit Authority owns Los Angeles Union Station and plans a capacity upgrade for the 2028 Los Angeles Summer Olympics. The station needs more federal and state grants, however, for run-thru tracks and more amenities to be completed by 2031.

Eventually, LA Metro wants a 2-mile LA Metro Light Rail extension to an upgraded Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs Station. Those upgrades will enable LAX Airport passenger transfers to Metrolink and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner for trips to Anaheim, Santa Ana, Irvine, Oceanside, Solano Beach, and San Diego. If that corridor gets two tunnels, 8 over/underpasses, and 3 more street closures by 2040, today’s 41 daily trains can increase to its planned 241 daily trains.

New overpasses, electric infrastructure, and a switch to electric trains can make the Van Nuys-Burbank Airport-Los Angeles Union Station-Norwalk/Santa Fe Springs-Anaheim corridor transport nearly 10 million annual Metrolink & Amtrak passengers while complementing California HSR ridership.

In 2024, USDOT granted $3.3 billion to the California HSR Central Valley project and $3 billion to the Brightline West HSR project that will connect Las Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga, which is 41 miles east of Los Angeles Union Station. We can now be confident that 171 miles of California HSR in the Central Valley and 218 miles of Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga will open around 2030.

Progress, But Segments Need More Federal, State & Private Funding

The Central Valley Corridor has 119 miles well under construction and 52 more miles at the doorstep of construction. California HSR Phase 1 has 320 more Environmentally Cleared miles. Two new Intermodal Transportation Centers are funded, ten more Intermodal Transportation Centers await funding, and 60+ over/underpasses need funding. Phase 1 can complete more milestones by 2030, 2035 & 2039, if enough federal, state, and private funds are secured by 2030.

A decade before the rail tunnel to Downtown San Francisco opened to host Caltrain and California HSR, San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center was a naming rights and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) success. Brightline West factored that success into their commitment to a $9 billion private investment in the Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR project, where they own land surrounding stations they will build.

By approaching their 12 million annual ridership projections. Brightline West anticipates a substantial ROI based on ticket, concession & advertising revenue, plus commercial TOD around its stations.

California HSR Phase 1 projects 30 million annual passengers, comparable to America’s Top 15-20 Hub Airports. Based on that projected ridership, other California HSR-Amtrak-Commuter Rail-Metro Rail stations can anticipate receiving similar revenue opportunities. The existential challenge, however, is how to successfully navigate The Politics of Funding.

THE POLITICS OF FUNDING CALIFORNIA HSR

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