California High-Speed Rail

Despite nefarious obstacles, California came to the realization that it must add electric mass transportation infrastructure. By building California High-Speed Rail System, modernizing Amtrak California & Commuter Rail routes, and expanding Metro Rail & Bus Rapid Transit systems, the Golden State joining Northeast Corridor in America’s war against highway congestion, excessive regional flights, smog & greenhouse gas emissions.  — Thomas Dorsey, HSR Scholar-Advocate & Travel Publisher

Before I explain California High-Speed Rail progress, it’s important to understand the scale of issues addressed to appreciate the higher Benefits over Costs it delivers.

California Freeway Widening Has Become Fool’s Gold

Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego Metro Area have several of the best-developed freeway systems in the world. They anchor the state’s Transportation Sector whose percentage of car ownership in metro areas has significantly increased since 1990. Many visitors also drive their highways to California’s world-renown beaches, majestic lakes, and national parks.

More than any other state, California influenced America’s Highway Culture of design and construction. When California metro area freeways widened to 2 HOV + 6 Standard lanes in the 1980s, they provided “Congestion Relief” while sustaining High Capacity-Efficiency-Per-Lane. More land became attractive for suburban real estate development. The nation followed trend-setting California.

As new freeway opened and freeways widened, they Induced Demand to commute from deeper suburbs to work, school, medical & shopping centers. In 3-5 years after each freeway widening, Peak Hour traffic congestion returned.

In the 1990s, population growth forecasts for California’s largest metro areas was daunting. Thinking it would provide much longer congestion relief, politicians chose freeway widening to 2 HOV + 8 Standard lanes. Their hopes were dashed by the population growth exceeding forecasts: Los Angeles Metro Area (18.3M pop), San Francisco Bay Area (7.5M pop), and San Diego Metro Area (3.4M pop). Peak Hour congestion returned in 2-3 years.

The mathematics of Queuing Theory explains why Capacity-Efficiency-Per-Lane decreased. For each freeway lane beyond 2 HOV + 6 Standard lanes, drivers spend more time adjusting speeds and lane-changing lateral motion that slows Average Speed during Peak Hours. Speeds also decreased due to More Cars Per Household and More Vehicle Miles Traveled to drive everywhere.

If California’s largest metro areas stopped at 2 HOV + 8 Standard lane freeways and built more rail-based Rapid Transit, it would have saved taxpayers a lot of money and damaged fewer communities.

Though further widening was Fool’s Gold, politicians retread the same Congestion Relief hype to justify widening freeways to 2 HOV + 10 Standard lanes. Today, some California freeways are 14, 16 and 21 lanes wide. They still re-congested after 2-3 years.

California’s north-south freeways through the Central Valley often congest. California intrastate travel is forecast to increase from 361 million annual trips in 2010 to 545 million annual trips by 2040. Unless we prioritize differently, intrastate traffic congestion will get worse too.

California Hub Airports Swamped, Airlines Skipping Central Valley

Sunny days, fertile soil, and snowpack to canal water make California’s Central Valley one of the world’s great agricultural regions. Economic bounty from freight trains and freight trucks transporting agriculture & oil, plus military bases and 5 universities helped the Central Valley sprout several 250,000 to 850,000 population metro areas.

Californians happily drive 2-3 hours reaching scenic beaches, majestic lakes, and breathtaking national parks. But driving to Lake Tahoe or Yosemite National Park is becoming a longer chore on State Highway 99 through Central Valley traffic congestion.

Nationwide, airlines have shifted most service to Medium-Haul flights (1.5-5 hours) and Long-Haul flights (6-15 hours). To sidestep financial losses, they canceled or severely limit service to metro areas under 1 million population.

With most intrastate flights to the Central Valley gone, drives from Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area and San Diego Metro Area via State Highway 99 increased in route to Yosemite National Park, Kings Canyon National Park, Sequoia National Park, and Lake Tahoe. Central Valley traffic congestion, smog & Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions increased.

California Cutting Transportation Greenhouse Gas Emissions

California acquired the Golden State nickname due to sunny days tanning brush on auburn hills and soaring mountains. Since 2000, California has seen rising temperatures produce alternating periods of drought. Those conditions have produced an abundance of golden brush fueling wildfires.

The increasing severity of droughts and wildfires, like the 2025 Los Angeles Wildfires, are two of many reasons why California leads America’s initiative in the Paris Climate Agreement.

The members’ primary goal is to limit Global Warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 to prevent already horrible impacts from becoming apocalyptic. To accomplish that goal, every advanced and emerging nation must slash greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Prior to 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that America is the world’s second-highest GHG emitter and that Transportation Sector is our largest GHG emitter. In descending order, the largest Transportation Sector GHG emitters are:

1. Oil-powered Cars & Small Trucks
2. Freight Trucks
3. Regional Flights
4. Cargo & Cruise Ships
5. Freight Trains

First, the good news.

California Climate Crisis Act plans to reduce statewide GHG emissions 85% below 1990 levels by 2045. Each year more clean wind, solar & geothermal energy enters the state’s electric grid.

Californians are purchasing 7 times more electric cars than the next 10 states combined. By 2031, Average Electric Car Range should reach 400 miles and charging stations will be pervasive along California and Las Vegas highways.

By 2035, Amazon and Walmart’s electric freight trucks will be commonplace for Short-Haul and Medium-Haul loads. When you consider that freight trucks are tax depreciated in 10-12 years, electric-hybrid freight trucks by other companies should be commonplace by then as well.

Airplanes are getting more fuel-efficient and switching to greener Sustainable Aviation Fuels. By 2030, their use will be standard practice at California’s 9 Hub Airports (LAX, SFO, SJC, OAK, BUR, ONT, SAN, SNA, SAF).

Cargo ships, cruise ships, and ferries are implementing Sustainable Maritime Fuels and new technologies to cut GHG and Smog emissions. California implemented regulations for seaport operating practices that will significantly cut their GHG and Smog emissions by 2031.

Unlike Europe’s freight rail industry committing to zero-emission electric locomotives, America’s freight rail industry is unofficially adopting biofuel-battery locomotives that lower GHG & smog emissions by 20-30%. Not ideal, but it helps.

Now, the bad news.

According to according to ResearchGate, commercial aviation considers Short-Haul flights to be under 3 hours (under 700 miles),  Medium-Haul flights to be 3–6 hours (up to 2300 miles), and Long-Haul flights to be over 6 hours and 2300 miles, like coast-to-coast and most intercontinental flights.

Short Hauls are 41% of U.S. flights. Since Medium-Hauls and Long-Hauls are increasing, aviation GHG emissions can only stabilize if we reduce excessive Short-Hauls under 550 miles that can mode-shift to new HSR routes.

Texas, California, and Florida are by far the worst GHG emitters, largely because they have the most oil-powered cars & small trucks, freight trucks, and excessive Short Haul (regional) flights between their large metro areas.

Los Angeles Metro Area and San Francisco Bay Area have two of America’s busiest airports. Los Angeles Metro Area also has America’s two largest cargo seaports.

Though electric cars & small trucks may approach parity with oil-powered vehicles by 2040, California’s major highways are still becoming less Capacity-Efficient-Per-Lane. Hence, highway congestion continues producing high GHG & smog emissions from gasoline- & diesel-powered vehicles.

California Transportation Smog Lowered, Not Enough

Diesel-powered freight trucks, cargo ships, and freight trains emit smog particulates that contain elemental black carbon — the main cause of asthma. One result is South Coast Air Quality Management District confirms that most smog emissions in Los Angeles Metro Area are transportation-related.

The American Lung Association also reports that high smog levels within 1 mile of major highways, airports, and seaports trigger higher levels of lung disease. In 2021, nearly 700,000 Californians were reported to have asthma or COPD.

California’s Central Valley has an additional burden. High concentrations of diesel-powered agricultural equipment, freight trucks and freight trains moving agriculture elevate smog particulates in rural and urban areas alike.

When clouds from the Pacific Ocean climb over the western mountain range, they are trapped within the Central Valley by the higher eastern mountain range — Sierra Mountains. Those clouds combine with warmer temperatures to form smog inversions.

As Global Warming increases average heat levels, smog inversions last longer, and more Central Valley residents develop lung diseases. Given that Central Valley workers produce one quarter of America’s food, this is a health problem of national significance.

No Cheap Infrastructure Solutions

Difference-making transportation infrastructure is very costly in affluent nations that have expensive property, strong personal property rights, and a culture of NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) lawsuits.

Multi-billion-dollar ATL, LAX, Chicago ORD, and NYC LaGuardia airport modernizations ballooned well beyond original cost estimates and took years longer to complete. NYC’s Second Avenue Metro Rail expansion leapfrogged original cost estimates & timeline. Ditto for Washington, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco Bay Area, and Los Angeles Metro Rail projects.

The 2.2-mile San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge Replacement blew past the original $250 million cost estimate and took 6 years longer to complete. The list of multi-billion-dollar highway widening projects that blew past cost estimates & timelines is as thick as a phonebook.

Excluding freeways that ignored public input and destroyed urban communities, the public generally welcomes these infrastructure projects.

As the most populous state with severe traffic congestion reducing economic productivity, major smog-related health issues, and extreme Climate Change impacts, the state needs a high-capacity transportation projects that do not make conditions worse.

Given the unmatched scale of this mega-project, news media and voters are right to ask tough questions about alternatives that were considered for a statewide vote.

Since a No-Build Alternative does not address California’s transportation shortfall or reduce traffic congestion, planners and most state politicians quickly dismissed it as non-viable.

Some politicians lobbied for a Highway + Airport Alternative in the Golden State. That alternative quickly collapsed, however, when you read the explanation further below.

That left Californians with a big decision about the High-Speed Rail (HSR) Alternative. In November 2008, voters chose to fund a $9.95 billion California High-Speed Rail System Bond Measure. NIMBY lawsuits delayed the bond’s first authorization (disbursement) until July 2012.

After federal & state-required public input, Early Works (geological studies, preliminary engineering), and partial Rights-Of-Way (ROW) property acquisition, California HSR Phase 1 project construction broke ground in January 2015.

The $9.95 billion bond allocated $9 billion to California HSR Phase 1 and $950 million to related Amtrak California, Commuter Rail & Metro Rail projects. Though it was a solid kick-start, due to complex Construction Cost Per Mile requirements, the 496-mile California HSR project always depended on larger federal, state and private funding.

HSR projects typically require 2-15% tunneling, with the exceptions being lengthy tunnel-specific projects under mountains like the Alps. In general, HSR Tunnel Cost Per Mile averages 2.5 to 3 times the cost of HSR Surface, Trench and Embankment Cost Per Mile. HSR Viaduct Cost Per Mile lies in between.

From a Construction Cost Per Mile perspective, how does California HSR compare to several other big HSR and Magnetic Levitation (MagLev) projects around the world?

China and Spain HSR Construction Cost Per Mile are vastly cheaper because they committed more funding per capita to staff-up, standardize materials & automate construction processes, and have less expensive property. China also has less personal property rights and fewer NIMBY lawsuits.

Japan’s Chūō Shinkansen Construction Cost Per Mile is a very expensive outlier because its MagLev technology requires new tunnels over 90% of its route to be straight enough for 314 mph operation. Nor can MagLev use existing tracks, tunnels or viaducts.

California HSR Construction Cost Per Mile is slightly higher than the UK’s HS1 project but requires more tunnels and viaducts due to more complex terrain.

Though not listed, France and Germany HSR Construction Cost Per Mile are slightly below UK’s HS1 because their governments committed early funding to staff-up, solicit public input, Early Works, acquire ROW property, and master HSR construction processes sooner.

The UK’s HS2 (HSR) project is insanely expensive because authorities let NIMBY lawsuits force excessive tunneling & viaducts, inflate ROW property costs, hire too many contractors, change project scope, and invoke inflation from delayed construction start.

America Can Afford California HSR

With nearly 40 million population, California is America’s richest state by GDP, has the 5th highest Per Capita Income by a state, and is the largest Tax Donor state giving far more than it receives.

HSR is a proven solution by other high GDP and high Per Capita Income nations, in part, to boost economic productivity in major corridors. As the 4th most visited state, plenty of non-residents would pay for high-speed train rides too.

Below are San Francisco-Bakersfield GDP-HSR corridor and the longer San Francisco-Los Angeles/Anaheim GDP-HSR corridor compared to 4 GDP-HSR corridors in Europe and Asia.

With those insights, California HSR project must address several essential questions to increase GDP and lasso a good Benefits/Cost Ratio:

1. What best practices can California adopt from European or Asian HSR?
2. What is California HSR System’s precise route and why?
3. Will California HSR System boost GDP and be financially self-sustaining?
4. Will California HSR System deliver partial benefits before Phase 1 completes?
5. When is California HSR System Phase 1 likely to complete?

Starting with the first question, California HSR Authority is following the construction pattern of European HSR systems that first build “Hard Infrastructure” — viaducts, trenches, and embankments. Tunnels are also Hard Infrastructure, but have the Highest Construction Cost Per Mile, take longest to construct. To build faster, they require large federal grants via the U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT).

It’s a good thing that California HSR construction pushed ahead. Trump’s USDOT canceled federal funding for a short tunnel into downtown San Francisco, even though the tunnel will further boost Caltrain commuter train ridership that grew a record high 47% from September 2024-September 2025.

French HSR Best Practices, A Good Model For California HSR

California has geography, expensive urban property, strong personal property rights, NIMBY lawsuits, and population density more similar to France than to Japan, China, Spain, Germany, Spain, Taiwan or the United Kingdom. Transportation planners wisely modeled California HSR after French HSR called Train a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Train) or simply, “TGV.”

TGV mostly operates on high-speed tracks called Ligne a’ Grande Vitesse (High-Speed Line) or simply, “LGV.” The French railroad agency SNCF builds and maintains LGV and nearly all legacy railway.

The French company Alstom builds electric-powered TGV, Regional and Suburban (Commuter) trains that do not emit smog or Greenhouse Gases (GHG). SNCF operates TGV as a for-profit subsidiary that also subsidizes SNCF Regional trains, while French metro areas subsidize Suburban trains.

In urban area, TGV, Regional Rail, and Suburban Rail maximize the Benefits over Cost of Maintenance for shared legacy railway and stations. In rural area, regional trains continue on legacy railway, while TGV transfers to LGV.

Like California, France has mountains, rivers, and man-made development that make it impossible to build completely straight & flat routes. Some legacy railway run is 100-150 years old. Their routes often change elevation, curve around mountains or have short old tunnels. Most legacy railway has been modernized to “Regional Rail” status that has electric-power, advanced train control, more railroad over/underpasses, and closed streets for higher train speeds, frequencies, and reliability.

LGV, however, requires long tunnels, viaducts, trenches, and embankments slicing some hillsides for mostly straight & flat route completely separated from roadways.

SNCF spends years studying, obtaining public input and drafting preliminary designs for LGV Alternatives. With additional public input in their rigorous Environmental Clearance process, SNCF selects Preferred LGV Routes, acquires ROW property, relocates utilities, includes mitigations to address public concerns, and conducts final engineering. Then, LGV construction takes 6-12 years, depending on the length of tunnels and viaducts.

Other essential LGV components are a high-speed train control system and overhead electric wires (“catenary”) that supply 25 KiloVolts to pantographs raised atop locomotives, plus enhanced railway foundations and shaved tracks for butter-smooth rides.

France, Many Decades Building A Comprehensive HSR System

In response to Japan introducing 130 mph (210 kmph) HSR during the 1964 Tokyo Summer Olympics, France began high-speed train R&D in 1966. By 1971, that research evolved to airplane-like turbine power for TGV, whose initial target speed was 168 mph (270 kmph).

Responding to the 1973 Oil Crisis, TGV R&D switched to electric power in 1974. In 1976, France ramped up SNCF funding to accelerate LGV construction between Paris and Lyon. It also accelerated Metro Rail and Tram construction for more people to reach Lyon train stations. TGV celebrated 168 mph commercial operation on LGV in 1981 and by 1988, boosted commercial operation to 186 mph (300 kmph).

Over that 22-year process, SNCF developed a precise degree of LGV curvature & flatness and train signaling certified for operation up to 205 mph (330 kmph). Alstom perfected reliable trains for that top speed. For 10% safety margin, electricity & maintenance cost savings, TGV are limited to 186 mph (300 kmph) in commercial operation on LGV. SNCF and Alstom continued R&D for higher speed LGV and TGV.

In 2006, Next-gen LGV was certified for operation up to 249 mph (400 kmph). SNCF’s original intent was to commercially operate Next-gen TGV up to 224 mph (360 kmph) on Next-gen LGV. While continuing R&D on a double-decker Next-gen TGV, SNCF chose to upgrade current double-decker TGV to commercially operate up to 199 mph (320 kmph) on Next-gen LGV.

For LGV to be certified for 330 kmph (205 mph) and trains to commercially operate at 300 kmph (186 mpg) on it, SNCF requires LGV to have a minimum curve radius of 4000 meters (13,123 feet). For Next-gen LGV to be certified for 400 kmph (249 mph) and trains to commercially operate at 360 kmph (224 mph) on it, SNCF requires a straighter minimum curve radius — 7200 meters (23,622 feet).

Though France does not have California’s GDP or Per Capita wealth, it has sustained funding for Intercity Passenger Rail projects since 1966. SNCF adopted some best practices from Japan, but developed more of their own for HSR & Regional Rail.

Today, SNCF has a comprehensive LGV System (map below), high-frequency TGV service, operating profits since the mid-2000s, a fare hierarchy based on route popularity & Trip Time Savings, and attractive ticket discounts for advanced purchases.

SNCF is expanding LGV beyond connections to 1 million population metro areas. In planning LGV System expansion to 3000 miles by 2040, France will enable 98% of residents and guests to reach their most visited destinations by HSR and Regional Rail.

Counting from 1959 to 2040, Japan Shinkansen is on pace for 81 years of R&D and construction. Counting from 1966 to 2040, French LGV is on pace for 74 years of R&D and construction. Other nations can be thankful for Japanese and French advancements that shorten today’s HSR construction by years.

In addition to the LGV System, SNCF uses over 16,000 miles of legacy railway for intercity passenger travel. TGV and Regional trains reach 160-180 kmph (99-112 mph) over most legacy railway.

When legacy railway is upgraded to support electric-powered TGV and Regional trains completely separated from automobiles, they run up to 200-220 kmph (124-137 mph). SNCF calls them “Classic Lines.” On the map above, a few Classic Lines branching from LGV are illustrated as thin grey lines, like the one from Le Mans to Nantes.

In 14-19 minutes after leaving urban stations, Regional trains reach 180-220 kmph (112-137 mph), while TGV transfers to LGV for 300 kmph (186 mph) top speed, or to Next-gen LGV for 320 kmph (199 mph) top speed.

By eliminating level railroad crossings via over/underpasses, closing small streets, and installing complete fencing, TGV has transported over 2 billion passengers on Classic Lines, LGV and Next-gen LGV without a single death in commercial operation.

To enable 98% of citizens to reach Paris or Lyon within 3 hours by 2040, France is investing 100 billion more Euros to upgrade nearly 100% of legacy railway to Classic Lines, expand standard LGV & Next-gen LGV, and introduce Next-gen TGV.

In 2Q 2026, double-decker Next-gen TGV will debut that is more aerodynamic, quieter, 30% lighter, 20% more energy-efficient, designed for 20% lower maintenance costs, and certified for 249 mph (400 kmph) top speed. Though Alstom calls it “Avelia Horizon” for global sales, SNCF brands it “TGV M” in France.

To increase passenger transfer options, local transit authorities ensure that Suburban trains, Metro trains, Trams, intercity buses, taxis, Uber & Bolt ride shares go to stations that host TGV and Regional trains.

As the leader of the Paris Climate Agreement, France is setting the example to reach Net-Zero greenhouse gas (GHG) Emissions by 2050. As France converts its last coal-fueled power plants to gas-fueled, SNCF will initially limit TGV M to 320 kmph (199 mph) on Next-gen LGV to consume less energy.

To meet its rising electricity demand, France is upgrading to a Smart Electric Grid that accepts excess wind & solar energy from Commercial and Residential sectors, cuts energy loss during transmission, and reduces black-outs. Many old nuclear reactors are being replaced with safer, more efficient Next-gen Nuclear Reactors.

As more low-cost wind & solar energy and next-gen battery systems compliment the Smart Electric Grid, they will limit expansion of nuclear energy, and the inflation-adjusted cost of electricity should lower.

When inflation-adjusted electricity cost sufficiently lowers, TGV M can attract higher ridership and operating profit, per these examples:

• TGV M running up to 360 kmph (224 mph) on Next-gen LGV can save 15-25 minutes between popular city pairs like Paris-Strasbourg, Paris-Bordeaux, Paris-Toulouse, Paris-Frankfurt, Paris-Stuttgart, and Paris-Zurich.
• In a 19-hour workday, increasing TGV M top speed to 360 kmph on Next-gen LGV can produce 1-2 extra roundtrips at the same labor costs as 320 kmph.
• Since regional flights are among the worst GHG & smog emitters, France has a Net-Zero policy to eliminate regional flights in corridors shared with LGV.
• Without costly runway additions, France reassigns airport resources from regional flights to its growing number of long-distance flights.

Once the HSR tunnel opens between Lyon and Turino in 2032 and HSR opens between Montpellier and Perpignan in 2034, France will have even more HSR connections between Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Belgium, Switzerland, and Germany.

California HSR Travel Time, Frequency & Reliability Advantages

By following most French HSR best practices, California political leaders and California State Transportation Agency (CalSTA) seeks similar Benefits over Costs. In 1996, CalSTA created California HSR Authority to develop the California HSR System.

California HSR System Phase 1 is highlighted by 463-mile San Francisco-Los Angeles segment plus 33 miles south from Los Angeles to Anaheim for 496 total miles. Phase 2 extends to Sacramento and San Diego.

Most California HSR route is designed for trains to commercially operate up to 220 mph in the Central Valley. Legacy rail is also upgraded to sustain 90 mph (100 mph later) in urban corridors of the Northern Bookend and Southern Bookend.

Initially, California HSR trains will produce these San Francisco-Los Angeles Trip Times in a 19-hour service day:

2 hours 40 minutes   6 daily Express Roundtrips
2 hours 56 minutes 32 daily Limited-Stop Roundtrips
3 hours 15 minutes  16 daily All-Stop Roundtrips

Depending on the number of new railroad over/underpasses built, streets closed and fencing added to support 90-100 mph, add 28-33 minutes for California HSR rides that continue from Los Angeles Union Station to Anaheim Regional Transportation Intermodal Center (ARTIC).

Laypersons might think that a mostly 475 mph flight produces shorter Travel Times than a mostly 220 mph train ride between San Francisco and Los Angeles. The falsehood is laid bare when Flight Time, Schedule Padding, Airport Queue Times & Ground Travel Times combine for Total Air Travel Time.

As this chart illustrates, Total Air Travel Time between downtown San Francisco and downtown Los Angeles ranges from 4 hours 20 minutes to 5 hours 15 minutes.

California HSR Authority now forecasts Gilroy-Palmdale Segment + Merced Spur completion by 2039, enabling transfers to Caltrain and Metrolink commuter rail systems and to Amtrak San Joaquin regional trains headed to Sacramento and Oakland.

San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim HSR stations will become Intermodal Transportation Centers that marry passenger transportation with private commercial, hotel, retail, and dining assets in what’s called “Transportation-Oriented Development” or simply, TOD.

With tickets downloaded on smartphones, travelers can arrive only 10-15 minutes before departure. Other travelers will arrive earlier to include a relaxing beverage, dining & retail options.

HSR stations have high platforms level with train cabin floors and each cabin has multiple doors. Passengers store small luggage above them and large luggage at the end of cabins, even when the train is moving. Travelers walk to doors while trains slow down. As a result, passengers exit & board in only 2-3-minutes per station.

California HSR is also designed for 95% schedule reliability with 7% schedule padding vs. Air Travel’s 73-80% reliability with 25% schedule padding.

California HSR Capacity, Productivity & Relaxation Advantages

Initially, California HSR System Phase 1 is designed to transport 550 passengers/train and 3 trains per hour. It has planned expansion for 900 passengers/train and 6 trains per hour in the future. That still leaves 6 trains per hour capacity in the Central Valley HSR spine for more Phase 1 ridership growth and the Phase 2 addition of San Diego and Sacramento.

The following chart indicates that 1 California HSR train can transport up to 918 passengers for a huge Seat Capacity advantage of vs. Airplanes, Intercity Buses, and Cars.

Intermodal Transportation Centers in San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim will have enough hotel, retail, dining, attractive landscaping & architecture to become welcome destinations before & after journeys.

Los Angeles-San Francisco flights only reach cruising altitude for 10-15 minutes of productive or relaxing time. In contrast, California HSR System will provide productive and relaxing time the entire trip.

HSR rides feature comfortable seats with large seat-back tables, power sockets at each seat, more dependable WiFi, and better seat lamps than Coach Class on airplanes. Or, travelers relax watching movies, playing video games or cards, gazing at landscapes, and napping. Travelers also place considerable value on walking to the Cafe Cabin and restrooms at their leisure.

Based on HSR experience worldwide, California HSR System Phase 1 will likely cut intrastate flights by 75-80%. Airlines serving California Hub Airports will appreciate regional flight resources being reallocated to more profitable long-distance flights.

California HSR Connectivity Advantage

California is forming a high-capacity intercity, regional, commuter rail, and metro rail network. The network spine, California HSR Gilroy-Burbank Airport segment + a survey to Merced, requires tunnels, viaducts, trenches, embankments, additional track, new electrical & signaling systems, new stations, and a maintenance facility.

Year by year execution of the California State Rail Plan is upgrading Amtrak California regional lines and Commuter Rail lines. The rail plan calls for substantially modernized Regional Rail & Commuter Rail operations and Both-Bookend connectivity with California HSR by 2038-39. At later dates, full modernization will further upgrade Gilroy-San Jose and Palmdale-Burbank Airport segments.

As the map above illustrates, the planned San Francisco-SFO Airport-San Jose-Gilroy HSR segment operated by Caltrain, already connects to Amtrak Capital Corridor, Amtrak Coast Starlight, and ACE commuter rail. California HSR’s Merced Spur will connect to Amtrak San Joaquin Oakland and Amtrak San Joaquin Sacramento.

In 2024, Caltrain commuter rail received a major electrification upgrade between San Francisco and San Jose. The corridor segment still needs major upgrades. Though California HSR will connect to Metrolink commuter rail at Palmdale by 2039, a high-speed Palmdale-Burbank Airport tunnel and other upgrades in Burbank Airport-Los Angeles Union Station-Anaheim segment currently by Metrolink commuter rail and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner at the same time.

This 4-minute explainer, Amtrak Regional Rail and Commuter Rail Connectivity Advantages with California HSR, reveals major upgrades coming to Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, Amtrak Capital Corridor, Caltrain, Metrolink and COASTER commuter rail in San Diego.

Not pictured above, Metro Heavy Rail & Metro Light Rail networks in Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area, and San Diego Metro Area will extend web-like from Intermodal Transportation Centers. Compared to 2020, those networks will be 33-50% larger in 2040.

Already well-developed, San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit Network is on pace for great connectivity by 2040. With the most projects under construction in America, Los Angeles Metro Area Rapid Transit is on pace for a 2050 network similar this vision map below.

2050 California’s Intercity Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit networks will have high-capacity connectivity similar to the High-Speed Rail, Regional Rail, Suburban Rail, Metro Rail & Tram networks in 2025 France.

California HSR Environmental Advantage

Since 1996, Californians have demanded that state politicians dramatically reduce smog & GHG emissions from Transportation Sector, the state’s biggest air polluter.

Contributing to the state’s Net-Zero emissions by 2045 Goal, California HSR will be powered by zero-emission renewable energy. Achieving Net Zero will be a huge accomplishment in a state with the Most Poor Air Quality Cities.

As the map below illustrates once California High-Speed Rail (HSR) enters commercial operation in late 2031 or early 2032, it will significantly reduce corridor smog & GHG emissions.

California HSR, Half Cost of Highway + Airport Alternative

Even if possible, the Highway + Airport Alternative would cost twice as much as California HSR System. Building another freeway between San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area would have required 3 times more Rights-Of-Way property than California HSR, further complicated by 3X wider highway tunnels through two large mountain ranges.

Increasing airport capacity for regional flights is the easiest alternative to dismiss. Eight of the nine busiest California airports have no adjacent open land for more runways. Voters also reject more jet noise & smog emissions over residential communities.

Though building California HSR System remains the Best Alternative, the loudest project criticisms are escalating Phase 1 cost and delayed completion date.

For fact-based context, read California High-Speed Rail Funding Politics to understand why the $33 billion Phase 1 Cost Quote was a rookie mistake and why project cost blew past what could have been a reasonable $75 billion and 2029 completion.

Constructing California HSR

California HSR Central Valley
• Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield (171 miles)
• Merced Wye to Gilroy (28 miles)
• Bakersfield-Palmdale (79 miles)

California HSR Authority is trying to figure out how to extend from Madera to Merced & Gilroy and from Bakersfield to Palmdale despite $4 billion federal funding committed by Biden being withheld by Trump 47. Fortunately, the project has enough momentum to make private investment likely by 4Q 2026.

That said, we should appreciate how much “Hard Infrastructure” is already completed or completing in 2026. Watch this video of California HSR progress by January 2026:

California HSR Northern Bookend
• San Francisco-San Jose (43 miles)
• San Jose-Gilroy-Merced Wye (33 miles)

Salesforce Transit Center is an Intermodal Transit Center and architectural tour de force in downtown San Francisco. The city has received $3.9 billion in Biden USDOT grants to combine with state and local funds for a new 1.4-mile train tunnel into the Salesforce Transit Center.

The USDOT, state, and select counties are combining funds for more railroad over/underpasses and street closures between San Jose and San Francisco to increase Caltrain commuter train speeds, frequencies, and reliability. Some Caltrain overpass construction is even at night (video below).

California HSR Phase 1 forecasts up to 243 daily passenger & freight train movements over railroad crossings the San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy segment by 2040. It has active plans to build 17 railroad over/underpasses and close a few small streets but would still leave about 45 level railroad crossings (as of this writing).

For public safety and to eliminate smog otherwise caused by 243 x ~45 Automobile Gate Waits per day, HSR advocates hope that politicians, CalSTA, and California HSR Authority educate the public on why it’s best & necessary to follow the French HSR safety example of NO level railroad crossings. More railroad over/underpasses are needed.

California HSR Southern Bookend
• Palmdale-Burbank Airport (41 miles)
• Burbank Airport-Los Angeles (13 miles)
• Los Angeles-Anaheim (33 miles)

San Francisco finished its last highway upgrade (not widening) project some years ago and plans to shorten another freeway. In Los Angeles Metro Area another freeway widening was strongly rejected by the public. Major California highway widening projects complete in 2026.

By halting additional highway widening in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Los Angeles & Orange counties, CalSTA and county transportation agencies can redirect funds to 35-40 more railroad over/underpasses in the Northern and Southern Bookends by 2042.

California HSR Authority and county transportation agencies plan to do exactly that with the coming Norwalk Blvd-Los Nietos Road Overpass (video below) that will benefit HSR, Amtrak Regional, Metrolink and freight trains. Drivers will like that overpass too since it will eliminate over 100 Gate Waits each day.

Why Build California HSR in the Central Valley Corridor

Many critics fault California HSR Authority for an alignment through small to medium-size Central Valley cities. Actually, it was a smart move because HSR business models excel at connecting small, medium and large metro areas up to 450 to 550 miles, depending on average speed. California HSR will have a world-class average speed neighboring 175 mph.

When the 360-mile Central Valley Corridor (Sacramento-Palmdale) was chosen in 2009, it had a population of 6.4 million. Today, it has 7 million. By 2040, it is forecast to reach 8 million and have more population than many 400-mile HSR corridors in France, Spain, and Italy.

Brightline West, a 218-mile Las Vegas-Victor Valley-Rancho Cucamonga HSR project, broke ground in 2024. This map from HSR Alliance illustrates that California HSR Central Valley Corridor and Brightline West HSR project plan to connect its Victorville (Victor Valley) Station with California HSR Palmdale Station.

Since the north-south I-5 Freeway corridor could have also enabled 220 mph HSR through Central Valley farmland via freeway median, some critics believe that California HSR Authority should have chosen that alignment for a straighter San Francisco-Los Angeles route. Here’s why that idea is half-baked:

1. Most airlines stopped flying to the 741,000 population Bakersfield Metro Area and the 803,000 population Fresno Metro Area, as mentioned above.

2. Drivers from Los Angeles Metro Area, San Francisco Bay Area and San Diego Metro Area to the Central Valley already contribute traffic congestion & smog to 5 of America’s 7 worst cities for air pollution.

3. Demand for cheap land to build AI Data Centers near Central Valley HSR stations expands TOD opportunities to raise billions in HSR project capital.

4a. Amtrak San Joaquin trains from Sacramento and Oakland will transfer riders at California HSR Merced Station and generate HSR ridership soonest.
4b. Caltrain commuter trains from San Francisco & San Jose will transfer riders at California HSR Gilroy Station and generate HSR ridership for early operating profits.
4c. Metrolink commuter trains from Los Angeles will transfer riders at California HSR Palmdale Station and generate HSR ridership and higher operating profits.

5. Workers in the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area gain 1-hour access to less expensive Central Valley housing.

6. Workers from the Central Valley, the state’s highest unemployment area, gain 1-hour access to San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metro Area jobs.

7. To avoid being an “Big City Elitist Project” it was smart politics to plan Central Valley service that gave its residents reason to vote for the California HSR Bond Measure. Japan, France, Italy, Germany, Spain, Belgium and the United Kingdom made similar decisions to fund their HSR systems.

8. California Department of Highways (CalTrans) within CalSTA controls I-5 Freeway ROW and wants to preserve the median for future lane additions.

9. Even if CalTrans permitted HSR alignment in the I-5 Freeway Median, it would require 20-25 miles of tunneling under Angeles Forest mountains that peak at 4160 feet and cross the San Andreas Fault. In contrast, Burbank Airport-Palmdale-Central Valley Corridor requires far less tunneling and crosses San Andreas Fault above ground.

Northern Bookend Upgrades

In the Northern Bookend, San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center connects Intercity Buses, Bus Rapid Transit, Uber, Lyft, taxis, local buses, and dedicated bikeways. It has a pre-built underground level ready to host 6 passenger trains simultaneously. Caltrain commuter rail is partially modernized with electrification. State and county funds are constructing more railroad over/underpasses, and more level boarding platforms that will shorten trip times and improve Caltrain frequency between San Francisco and San Jose.

BART (Metro Heavy Rail) and San Francisco Muni Metro (Metro Light Rail) have a joint underground station 1 block from Salesforce Transit Center. San Francisco Ferry Building is only a 3-block walk from Salesforce Transit Center. BART system expands to San Jose’s HSR Intermodal Transportation Center.

By 2040, San Francisco and/or San Jose Intermodal Transit Centers will connect Caltrain, California HSR, Amtrak Capitol Corridor, Amtrak Coast Starlight, BART, Metro Light Rail, Intercity Buses, Bus Rapid Transit, local buses, Uber, Lyft, taxis, and dedicated bikeways.

Since the switch to smoother riding, quieter electric trains in September 2024, Caltrain’s 47% ridership boost and significant energy efficiency are a massive success. Caltrain accelerates & brakes faster too, enabling more train frequency in the 49 miles between San Jose and San Francisco, but stops 1.3 miles short of Salesforce Transit Center.

Barring another political funding delay, the rail tunnel into San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center is slated to start construction in 2027 for shorter Caltrain Trip Times into downtown San Francisco beginning 2032.

From 2009 to 2018, Caltrain experienced 80 collisions/pedestrian incidents at the gated level railroad crossings shared by trains, automobiles, cyclists, and pedestrians. The Federal Railroad Administration says 94% of train-vehicle collisions can be attributed to risky driver behavior or poor driver judgment.

In most of 2024, Caltrain commuter rail averaged 5 trains/hour, yet transported 65,000 daily riders. A few freight trains also used the tracks after Caltrain’s 19-hour service day. Currently, 37 gated railroad crossings between San Jose and San Francisco limit Caltrain to 96 daily roundtrips.

For near term public safety, Caltrain’s local partners are installing sophisticated Quad Gate Systems to reduce opportunities for risky driver behavior and poor judgment at level railroad crossings. Quad-Gate Systems cost about $1 million each.

San Jose Diridon Station already hosts Caltrain, Amtrak Capitol Corridor regional trains, Amtrak Coast Starlight long-distance trains, ACE commuter trains, and Metro Light Rail trains. By 2032, BART will extend to an upgraded San Jose Diridon Station.

In the San Francisco-San Jose segment, California HSR currently plans to run through 6 Quad Gate Systems and cities have committed to closing 4-5 small streets. That will leave 26-27 railroad crossings that need railroad over/underpasses or street closures to eliminate collisions. In 2025 dollar value, roughly $2.7 billion is needed to construct them.

It’s good that California HSR Authority solicits lengthy public input. That led to plans for 20+ Quad Gate Systems in San Jose-Gilroy segment. But here’s why Quad Gate Systems will be jeered by the 2032 public.

On a typical 2025 workday, about 400,000 automobiles crossed Caltrain tracks between San Francisco and San Jose. Even with Quad Gate Systems reducing dangerous driver behavior, the increasing number of Gate Waits will increase smog around them and reduce transportation efficiency for drivers.

Caltrain ran 104 train movements that combine with 4 freight trains for 108 daily train movements in San Francisco-San Jose segment. Each Caltrain gate closing triggers about 35 Seconds of Gate Wait. Since freight trains are longer, their Gate Waits are longer.

By 2031, Caltrain plans 228 train movements that will combine with 8 freight train movements in San Francisco-San Jose segment. In the San Jose-Gilroy rail segment, Caltrain plans 38 train movements, ACE plans 4 train movements, Amtrak Coast Starlight plans 4 train movements, and Union Pacific plans 4 freight train movements for 50 daily train movements, triggering Gate Waits at 20 railroad crossings. Drivers won’t like that.

By 2040, Caltrain plans 250 train movements and California HSR plans 152 train movements in San Francisco-San Jose segment for a combined 402 daily train movements. Drivers will loath that many Gait Waits at every remaining level railroad crossing.

Each day that year, Caltrain plans 76 train movements, California HSR plans 152 train movements, Amtrak Coast Starlight plans 4 train movements, and Union Pacific forecasts 5-6 train movements for 237-238 daily train movements in San Jose-Gilroy segment. Drivers will loath that many Gait Waits at 20 level railroad crossings.

The 231-mile Washington-NYC corridor used by Amtrak, commuter rail, and freight rail encountered many Gate Waits at level railroad crossings that elevated driver frustration, accidents and suicides. The public demanded over/underpass funding and street closures to eliminate them by 1984, well before Northeast Corridor train movements jumped to the massive numbers of today.

As Gate Waits multiply in the 76-mile San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy corridor, the public will demand likewise. We should fund them now to eliminate Gate Waits, fatal accidents, and save billions of taxpayer dollars. As more railroad over/underpasses are built and small streets close, speed will increase from 79 mph to 90 mph, and then to 100 mph in some parts of urban area.

Southern Bookend Upgrades

Fresno and Kings/Tulare Stations are funded to begin construction in 4Q 2025. Merced and Bakersfield have ready-to-build Intermodal Transportation Center designs that await construction funding. The Palmdale Multimodal Transportation Center design is underway. In the mountainous 38-mile Palmdale-Burbank Airport segment, rail tunnels are required similar to those under the Swiss Alps.

Burbank Airport is building a replacement terminal north of the current terminal by 2027 and leaving room for an underground train station. Once the California HSR Palmdale-Burbank Airport segment is funded, Burbank Airport will help coordinate the construction of that underground station to host trains within walking distance of the Burbank Airport Replacement Terminal.

By 2029, two new railroad overpasses in Glendale will help trains run faster north of Los Angeles Union Station.

Located on the northern edge of downtown, Los Angeles Union Station is the 6th busiest train station in America. It currently hosts Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, 2 Amtrak Long-Distance lines, 6 Metrolink commuter rail lines, 3 Metro Rail lines, over a dozen Bus Rapid Transit lines, Intercity Buses, Taxis, Uber, Lyft, and soon, a Dedicated Bikeway.

The California HSR bond also helped fund the Regional Connector under Downtown LA, enabling more Metro Rail trains to reach Los Angeles Union Station. One new railroad overpass in Santa Fe Springs has improved Metrolink and Amtrak train service to/from Los Angeles Union Station and passing freight trains.

In 1939, Los Angeles Union Station was built as a terminus rather than a run-through station. Consequently, trains must pull in and back out, adding about 10 minutes to schedules. That will change when Los Angeles Union Station run-thru tracks are completed by 2033.

Those run-thru tracks will slice about 15 minutes rom southbound Metrolink and Amtrak Pacific Surfliner trip times and increase train frequency in the Chatsworth-Van Nuys-Burbank Airport-Glendale-Los Angeles Union Station-Anaheim-Laguna Niguel-Oceanside-San Diego corridor. LA Metro Transit Authority owns Los Angeles Union Station and plans a capacity & amenities upgrade as well.

If that corridor gets two rail tunnels, 12 over/underpasses, and 3 more street closures by 2040, today’s 41 daily trains can increase to its planned 241 daily trains to 4X Metrolink and 3X Amtrak Pacific Surfliner ridership while complementing California HSR and LA Metro Rail ridership by 2040.

About $400 million was leftover since the Obama Administration. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law signed by Biden granted $3.5 billion to California HSR project and $3 billion to Brightline West HSR project over 2023-24 that will connect Las Vegas to Rancho Cucamonga. Synergy is forming between the HSR projects.

Unfortunately, Trump’s is withholding California’s $3.9 billion in federal grants. Nevertheless, citizens can be confident that California Central Valley HSR and Brightline’s Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR will open by 2031-32.

Progress, But More Federal, State & Private Funding Needed

Despite regulatory bureaucracies, strong personal property rights, and NIMBY lawsuit delay, France and Germany have built tremendous HSR systems by continuous federal funding to staff-up in-house to minimize external contractors, refine regulations, refine procurement & construction processes. Not so for America.

California HSR Authority justly calls the federal government an unreliable partner for its project. That’s true and shameful for the world’s richest nation.

Though Obama Administration granted California HSR $3.4 billion at project start-up, in each of his last 6 years the Republican-led Congress denied Obama $52-60 billion of additional HSR funding for the Northeast Region, California, Chicago-Midwest, Texas, Southeast Region and Northwest Region. Trump 45 also withheld $929 million of Obama’s allocation remainder to California HSR.

The Biden Administration allocated $30 billion to the Northeast Region, but only granted $3.5 billion to California HSR and $3.4 billion for the short Caltrain rail tunnel into San Francisco’s Salesforce Transit Center. Though Biden restored $929 million halted by Trump 45, it should not be viewed as progress since it was a restoration.

Today, Trump 47 is withholding $3.5 billion California HSR funds and $500 million towards the San Francisco rail tunnel allocated by Biden. Consequently, 10 years of underfunding by Obama & Biden coupled with 6 years & counting of zero funding by Trump are the primary reasons Phase 1 estimated cost rose to $126 billion when it could have been around $75 billion.

Now the good news.

In 2025, California committed $20 billion additional HSR funding through 2045. California HSR Authority released a $3.5 billion Request For Proposal to lay tracks, install electrical & signaling systems in the Central Valley. The state exempted California HSR from the CEQA regulatory process, to shave about 12 months off ongoing project segments. California HSR Authority applied value engineering to reduce costs and started Early Works on the Madera-Gilroy and Bakersfield-Palmdale segments.

When new leadership controls the Presidency and at least, the House of Representatives in January 2029, California HSR project will regain the $4 billion withheld by Trump.

California HSR is on pace to deliver 220 mph rides in Merced-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield segment in 2031. San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy-Fresno-Kings/Tulare-Bakersfield HSR segment is on pace to open by 2038. Commuter Rail-Amtrak Regional upgrades and Metro Rail expansions over 2028-39 will also shorten Trip Times to final destinations in the Northern & Southern Bookends.

After Brightline West’s Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR opens in 2031, CalSTA, Metrolink and Brightline West will advance activities for a 53-mile HSR extension from Brightline Victor Valley HSR Station to Palmdale Intermodal Transportation Center to later host California HSR.

With that financial buttressing, less red-tape, critical construction milestones, Early Works in next segments, and higher operating profit forecast than Brightline West HSR, California HSR project can anticipate private investment by late 2026 to early 2027. That combined momentum will attract large federal funding for likely completion of Bakersfield-Palmdale HSR segment by 2039.

California HSR, Brightline HSR, Amtrak Capital Corridor, Caltrain & Metrolink transfers at San Jose, Gilroy, Merced, Palmdale & Victor Valley to boost California HSR ridership up to up to 18 million — higher than Amtrak’s Acela and Northeast Regional ridership today. It will also boost Brightline West HSR ridership.

California HSR attracting up to 18 million riders and $2 billion annual revenue are compelling numbers to attract a larger concession license from a high-speed train operator and hopefully, merit $40 billion more federal funding to complete Phase 1.

At the same time, federal, state and county funds are improving Anaheim-Irvine-Oceanside-San Diego segment for better Amtrak Pacific Surfliner, Metrolink and COASTER commuter service.

Those rider transfers set the stage for California HSR Phase 1 to reach 35 million annual ridership and generate momentum for California HSR Phase 2. To see how California HSR should obtain substantially more federal funding, click on The Politics of Interstate HSR Funding below.

THE POLITICS OF INTERSTATE HSR FUNDING

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