2035 Amtrak Connect US Map
Interstate High-Speed Rail Funding
To build great Sustainable Transportation and related Sustainable Energy infrastructure, America must inject higher federal & state funding. That is the make-or-break political challenge in a nation still addicted to oil & gas. But if we break that addiction, we’ll attract substantial private funding to High-Speed Rail projects. — Thomas Dorsey, Soul Of America
Sound Demographics Merit Higher Passenger Rail & Rapid Transit Funding
Amtrak is a federal agency dependent on the political swings of Congress, Presidents, State Legislatures, and Governors. One byproduct of that functional ambivalence is a 2035 Amtrak Connect US Map designed to please too many political districts rather than attract high ridership for compelling Benefits over Costs like the advanced nations of Western Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China enjoy.
All but three Amtrak Regional routes have 80-90 mph top speeds and less than 8 daily roundtrips. Another byproduct is that Amtrak features Long-Distance routes with average speeds slower than driving and 1 daily roundtrip. Based on corridor population & economics, highway congestion, and excessive regional flights, Amtrak ridership could be two orders of magnitude higher if it had Western Europe-style Passenger Rail infrastructure.
U.S. mega-regions are home to 82% of the nation’s population and generate nearly 90% of National GDP. For purposes of investment and planning coordination, consider Northern California and Southern California-Las Vegas as one mega-region. The Texas Triangle plus Oklahoma should be another mega-region on the America 2050 Mega-Regions Map.
Each mega-region has 150-650-mile corridors of 7-50 million population that can justify High-Speed Rail (HSR) projects. Over a dozen 30-300-mile corridors of 3-6 million population can justify Regional Rail upgrade projects. Those corridors have population densities like Western Europe in the 1970s & 1980s when they accelerated public investment in HSR and Regional Rail.
America 2050 Mega-Regions Map; source Regional Plan Association
America’s mega-regions scream out for a world-class Interstate HSR System with Regional Rail extensions.
Yes, America Can Afford Sustainable Infrastructure
In the 20th century, our federal, state, & county governments invested nearly $2 trillion in Highways and $750 billion in Aviation. Private companies also invested billions in Coal-powered electric plants, plus Oil & Gas infrastructure that helped power America to global economic leadership.
In the 21st century, every advanced nation needs great Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit to balance with great Highways and Aviation so each mode specializes in what it does best.
America invests only 0.5% of its GDP in Infrastructure. To surpass America, China invests 5.6% of its GDP. Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Germany invest 0.7% to 1.3% of their GDP in Intercity Passenger Rail and Transit infrastructure.
America’s Aviation infrastructure is keeping pace, but our Highways are overburdened because our Intercity Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit are poor.
The U.S. economy reached $27 Trillion in GDP in 2023. We don’t need the same percentage of GDP Infrastructure investment as China. But we should invest 1.3% of Annual GDP Infrastructure investment to catch up with Japan, South Korea, and Western Europe in the not-too-distant future. Canada will likely follow us.
The World Economy in 2023; source Visual Capitalist
We don’t have to shake down couches to find the money. Politifact says that America spent over $6 Trillion on two Middle East wars from 2001-21. After those two wars, we freed up money but did not cut wasteful Military Spending.
As Scientific American explained in 2020, “The Pentagon has a track record of profligate spending. If it were a private corporation, gross mismanagement would have forced the Pentagon into bankruptcy years ago. Dysfunctional internal controls, abetted by years of lax congressional and Inspector General oversight have enabled it to waste about $100 billion annually on a parade of overpriced, botched, and bungled projects.”
In 2022, the U.S. government spent 3.3% of the nation’s Annual GDP ($877 billion) on Military Spending, but only 0.5% of its Annual GDP on Infrastructure. With better oversight by the Inspector General and Congress, America can easily reduce Military Spending by 6-7%. That alone would free $60 billion/year towards Infrastructure while maintaining a Military Strength advantage over China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea combined.
To capture another $40-45 billion/year for 21st-century Infrastructure, federal politicians should eliminate tax loopholes that help some big corporations and rich citizens pay a lower tax rate than Office Administrators. Those two adjustments can move America to 0.9% of Annual GDP on Infrastructure investment.
Political Rollercoaster to Fund Sustainable Transportation & Sustainable Energy
While campaigning for President in 2020, Joe Biden floated his proposal for a $3.5 Trillion/5 Year Infrastructure Proposal that included funding for Education and Health Care.
Based on the 2020 Election outcome and decades of political experience, President Biden knew that he could not get enough votes to pass such a large proposal through the new U.S. Senate, so he cut it to $2.5 Trillion/5 Years by stripping out Education and Health Care. He sent his 2nd Infrastructure Proposal to the U.S. House of Representatives for a vote.
Within the 2nd Infrastructure Proposal, Democrats in the House of Representatives proposed $205 billion/5 years for High-Speed Rail projects. That federal funding scale would attract about $100 billion/5 years in state, county, city & private funds enabling more High-Speed Rail & Regional Rail projects. About $200 billion/5 years for Rapid Transit projects could have also been funded. The 2nd Infrastructure Proposal was large enough to start infrastructure projects in all 50 states. By the end of the 5-year BIL, there would be enough project momentum and public appetite to increase annual funding levels.
The Democrat-led U.S. House of Representatives approved the 2nd Infrastructure Proposal and sent it to the U.S. Senate where it quickly vaporized due to complaints of high cost.
President Biden quickly rebounded with a 3rd Infrastructure Proposal of $2.0 Trillion that would still be a difference-making sum. It was narrowly shot down in the U.S. Senate.
Recognizing that he would have to “Cut Muscle” on Infrastructure, Biden submitted a 4th Infrastructure Proposal for $1.75 Trillion. That amount passed the House of Representatives again. It could have allocated $115-125 billion/5 years each for Federal Railroads and Federal Transit projects on top of their annual USDOT budgets. That was large enough for this stage of California HSR, Las Vegas-Southern California HSR, Chicago Midwest HSR, Southeast HSR, and Texas HSR extension into downtown Dallas.
When will America get serious about funding High-Speed Rail like other nations?; credit gilaxia
Due to the worst political warfare, President Biden’s 4th Infrastructure Proposal capsized in the Senate again.
Long story short, a bipartisan group of Senators representing mostly rural states dominated by Highway, Oil, and Coal interests “Cut Bone” on Infrastructure investment. They kneecapped Infrastructure upgrades to only $1.2 trillion/5-years that protected most funding for Highway surface & bridge repair. If Congressional Democrats and President Biden did not sign the $1.2 trillion/5-year proposal into Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), America’s Highway bridges, Intercity Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit, Sustainable Energy, Waterworks, and Cybersecurity Infrastructure would have fallen further behind.
With no better option, Congressional Democrats and President Biden signed the 5-year BIL in November 2021. It allocated a paltry $66 billion to Federal Railroads and $39 billion to Federal Transit.
Within that $66 billion for Federal Railroads, just under $42 billion goes to High-Speed Rail (HSR) projects. Specifically, a difference-making $30 billion goes to the Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR and $3 billion combines with $8 billion private investment for Las Vegas-Southern California (Rancho Cucamonga) HSR project. To obtain political support around the country, another difference-making $24 billion goes to new Amtrak Regional & Long-Distance trains and removes a few freight rail bottlenecks.
California HSR received only $3.3 billion despite having over 90% of its project Ready-to-Build or Near-Ready-to-Build. The $9 billion BIL remainder ensures that California HSR and every other HSR project competes like crabs in a barrel for scraps.
At America’s current pace of HSR funding, China, Japan, and Western Europe will extend their massive HSR Kilometer (Mileage) lead by 2030—Ditto for Rapid Transit networks.
Combining More Public & Private Funds for HSR & Regional Rail
Unlike China’s planned 43,500 HSR miles, America only needs 26-27,000 HSR miles by 2050. Since BIL funding is nowhere close to America’s need, Congressional Democrats and President Biden narrowly pushed through a USDOT annual budget that boosts Federal Railroads and Federal Transit by $8 billion each. Combined with an annual slice from the 5-year BIL, the Secretary of Transportation planned to invest $142 billion in FY2023 (1 October 2022 – 30 September 2023) as follows:
$70.5 billion in Federal Highways
$23.6 billion in Federal Aviation
$21.1 billion in Federal Transit
$17.9 billion in Federal Railroads
Those amounts do not make up for underfunding Intercity Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit since the Vietnam War ended in 1974. America will have only 1,568 HSR miles by 2030 and 2X that amount by 2040. That’s 3 times less HSR than Spain, a country with only 6% of America’s GDP.
Since Sustainable Transportation and Sustainable Energy remain highly politicized in America, voters must press all presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, and state assembly candidates to commit higher budgets for them in the 2024, 2026, and 2028 Election cycles.
California is the poster child for the most deserving state. It has the highest population, most intra-state highway congestion, and most Intrastate + Las Vegas regional flights. It produces the most GDP and technical innovation. It contributes the most public funds to HSR & Regional Rail projects. Despite severe federal underfunding, the California HSR project is on pace to open/upgrade 230 miles of route by 2031. But if federal funding is not accelerated the next 270 miles will have increasingly higher Costs Per Mile.
To address the Interstate HSR federal funding shortfall, U.S. Representatives Seth Moulton and Suzan DelBene co-authored the $205 Billion/5 Year American High-Speed Rail Proposal again in 2024. We need similar federal funding to accelerate Rapid Transit projects listed in Part 5.
If U.S. taxpayers can afford the F-35 Fighter Jet program costing over $1.7 Trillion we can certainly afford $205 billion/5 Years to accelerate HSR & Regional Rail construction and $200 billion for Rapid Transit construction.
Taming Mega-Project Inflation
Generations Y & Z born after 1981 are the new majority of voters. Polling indicates that Generation Y & Z have a larger appetite for Sustainable Transportation and Sustainable Energy. The current $42 billion for HSR projects combined with the $205 billion American HSR Proposal can attract $125 billion in state, county, city & private funding. $350 billion is enough to accelerate all 13 HSR projects listed in Part 6 of this series. So-called Red States & Blue States would equally benefit from millions of new blue & white-collar jobs.
Transportation scholars Alon Levy at TransitCosts.com and Yonah Freemark at TheTransportPolitic have studied HSR, Regional Rail, Suburban Rail, Metro Rail & Tram best practices of Western Europe. To ensure we get our money’s worth, Alon and Yonah identified several Best Practices from Western Europe to limit cost inflation. We need federal & state leaders to follow these best practices in America:
1. Converge federal & state Environmental Reviews with smarter policies that shorten timelines
2. Limit contractors by hiring more Passenger Rail expertise in Transportation Agencies
3. Standardize more construction elements that lower costs for economies of scale
4. Remind the public that projects include funding to purchase Rights-Of-Way (ROW) property
5. Clearly illustrate how each project fits the Interstate HSR System plus Regional Rail extensions
6. Using Northeast Corridor and Western Europe examples, illustrate how environmental impacts will be mitigated
7. Build many HSR, Regional Rail, and Rapid Transit projects simultaneously
8. Compensate property owners at true market rate for their ROW
Aside from the government, we need news & social media to convince the public to advance ROW property acquisition faster, as news media did for Highways and Airports in the 1950s and 1960s. The public must be better informed to understand why HSR & Regional Rail Benefits outweigh nearly all NIMBY lawsuits.
Will Generation Y & Z Save Us?
The United Nations says we are in a death race to prevent a 2° Celcius temperature rise by 2050 that threatens our way of life. To slow down Global Warming, every advanced nation must accelerate Sustainable Energy investments, plant more trees, and recycle & reuse more plastic.
The American Society of Civil Engineers says that we need several hundred billion dollars more in Electric Grid investment for Sustainable Energy.
We built the Interstate Highway System and International Airports with both parties winning project funds for their constituents. America can win again by building Sustainable Infrastructure faster in all 50 states to limit project cost inflation.
Generation Y & Z voters impacted the 2022 Election and and become ever larger percentages of 2024, 2026 & 2028 elections. Their lifetimes will experience more negative Global Warming impacts than earlier generations.
They can vote for politicians who increase Intercity Passenger Rail, Rapid Transit & Sustainable Energy project funding, and direct Highway funding to surface & bridge repair, NOT highway widening.
In 2024, Generation Y & Z voters can install political leaders to pass the $205 billion/5 Year American HSR Act. Based on evidence to date, that amount will likely attract $100 billion/5 years of matching funds from state, county, city, and private sources.
By 2030, the 171-mile California HSR Merced-Bakersfield segment will demonstrate 220 mph and the 170-mile Las Vegas-Rancho Cucamonga HSR line will demonstrate 180-185 mph mileage. California will power its HSR mileage with 100% Sustainable Energy. Amtrak Northeast Corridor HSR will feature over 120 miles of 140-160 mph speeds, and be more resilient to sea level rise. We’ll grow from the current 6 metro areas to 12 metro areas having Rapid Transit networks connected to train stations and worthy alternatives to Highway congestion.
Those factors should inspire voters to demand at least $75 billion/year in combined federal, state & local investment each for Intercity Passenger Rail and Rapid Transit. There should also be a multiple of current investment in Sustainable Energy.
The Interstate High-Speed Rail System We Need
Based on my High-Speed Rail training at Mineta Transportation Institute and insights from TheTransportPolitic, PedestrianObservations, and America 2050 Research Framework, and attending HSR, Commuter Rail & Metro Rail public hearings, I learned how to identify viable routes that maximize Benefits over Costs.
In my opinion, the U.S. High-Speed Rail Association and High-Speed Rail Alliance have the best Vision Maps based on sound transportation planning principles.
I favor the bold 2050 U.S. High-Speed Rail Association Network Map presented in their video (above). I go back & forth over speed ranges. The 2050 Interstate HSR System should be engineered for 140 mph through long tunnels, and 160-180-200-220 mph speeds elsewhere. Or it should be engineered for 145 mph through long tunnels, and 165-185-205-220 mph speeds elsewhere. With either speed range, HSR routes should operate 26-76 daily roundtrips depending on their corridor density.
We should also upgrade 14 Regional Rail routes to 110-125 mph connected to Interstate HSR and operate their trains as 17-76 daily roundtrips depending on their corridor density and length.
In that manner, we can form a definitive 2050 Interstate HSR System Map with Regional Rail extensions delivering the Benefits over Costs that Western Europe enjoys 10 years sooner in 2040.
Building, building, Building.